Rabid Porcupine: Free NFL Picks and Home of the Fantasy Sports Book

New Website Coming Soon!
06/19/09

I know we’ve been telling you guys and gals for a while now that we have been working on a new website design, and it will be released in August. We have a list of users who will gain early access to the site in early-to-mid July. Those of you on the list will receive an email with instructions on logging on to the new site. We’re certain that you all will just love the new features and layout!

Here are a few of the new things that we have been working on:

 A new message board that can update you on replies to your posts
 A community commentary page so everyone can discuss each game more easily
 A Fantasy Sports Book game for everyone to join (more on this at a later date)
 Compiling lots of statistical analysis and trends which we will update weekly (there’s even a book to go with this)
 Weekly prizes for various contests

And of course, the old favorites will remain:

 The Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book – create and join as many leagues as you’d like!
 The Porcupine’s Pick – that little critter has picked 62% correct in the past 2 years!
 Hubbell’s Commentary – but now you’ll be able to offer your own opinions and picks with mine
 Weekly Pick’em Poll – did I mention weekly prizes earlier?

This is just a taste of what’s to come.

Now let’s get on to my early predictions. No explanations yet, just the picks:

2009 NFL Divisions

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Chicago Bears
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Detroit Lions

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons*
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC East
1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles*
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. St. Louis Rams

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens*
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Houston Texans*
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Buffalo Bills
4. New York Jets

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Denver Broncos
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders

*Wild Card Teams

Well, that’s just a teaser of what’s to come, and to get the blood flowing for football season! I for one have been in a funk since the Super Bowl ended. It’s time to get rejuvenated again!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Why football fields are 120 yards x 53.3 yards
04/20/09

We recently asked the question “Why is a football field 53.3 yards (160 feet) wide? Why isn’t it just an even 50 yards wide? Why is this distance significant?

After a few answers, Muffy finally found the reason and won a hat from us.

Here is more info on that answer:

In the beginning (around 1874), a football field was 140 yards long by 70 yards wide, which gave the field a 2:1 ratio. The rules were nothing like today’s rules, and would change drastically around 1880, when the “father of American football”, Walter Camp, started making the rules that we know today. In 1880, Camp changed the number of players from 15 to 11, which also led to a smaller field in 1881. The length was reduced to 110 yards (330 feet). There were no end zones yet, as the forward pass wasn’t invented at this time. The width was then kept at an even number to keep the 2:1 ratio as close as they could. So they settled on 160 feet, which is that awkward 53.3 yards. Apparently they used feet while making these decisions, so no one cared that 160 feet converted into yards is the curious 53 1/3. In 1912 the field was reduced to 100 yards long, but the width remained the same, that odd 53.3 yards. So that’s why a football field is 53.3 yards wide!

While researching this, we found lots of information on the game and how it evolved in those early years. If you have the time, check it out. You can read about Walter Camp and the History of American Football on Wikipedia.com. You can also find a book written by Walter Camp on Google Books called “Walter Camp’s Book on College Sports”. This book has lots of interesting information on the game we love so much.

Here are just a couple of things that Walter Camp did for the game:

• one side retained undisputed possession of the ball, until that side gives up the ball as a result of its own violations
• the line of scrimmage
• 11 on a team instead of 15
• created the quarter-back and center positions
• forward pass
• standardized the scoring system, numerical scoring
• created the safety, interference, penalties, and the neutral zone
• tackling as low as the knee was permitted - 1888
• a touchdown increased in value to six points and field goals went down to three points - 1912

Also, the National Football League was formed in 1920.

Thanks for participating, and stay tuned for other opportunities to win a Rabid Porcupine Hat!

Rabid Porcupine Caps
04/08/09

These are the caps that the Porcupine's Fantasy Sports Book winners received:

Super Bowl
01/24/09

Well I missed on both games last week, as I had Baltimore playing Philly in the Super Bowl. But it’s Pittsburgh vs Arizona instead. It’s a good thing I wasn’t betting on those games! The Steelers and Ravens played another very physical game that came down to the end of the 4th quarter. Joe Flacco finally looked like a rookie when he tossed that interception to Troy Polamalu and watched him take it back for the clinching touchdown. The Cardinals jumped to an early lead against the Eagles, only to see that lead turn into a 1 point deficit in the 4th quarter. But the magic was still there for Kurt Warner as he led his team on a game winning drive late in the 4th quarter.

So the Super Bowl will match the league’s #1 defense against one of its strongest passing offenses. And the Steelers are also #1 against the pass. So something has to give. The Cardinals are averaging 32 points per game in the playoffs as they’ve won 3 times as the underdog. So it’s only fitting that they are a 7 point underdog for the Championship. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has been the favorite each week, and they certainly have lived up to that.

Super Bowl

Steelers -7 over Cardinals – These teams are in this game for different reasons. The Steelers rode their defense all season long, while the Cardinals have relied on their offense to get them here. The Cardinals defense, however, has performed at a new level in the playoffs and that is why they made it to the Big Game. Kurt Warner has been here before, and it shows. His experience in the playoffs has been extremely valuable to Arizona. This along with the talents of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin have made Arizona the surprise team of 2008. The Cardinals were fortunate to be in a terrible division that allowed them to win it with a 9-7 record and sneak into the playoffs. I for one didn’t give them much of a chance to make it this far. I picked them to beat the Falcons, but I thought that would be the end of their playoff run. Well, they’ve proved me wrong for the past 2 weeks. The Steelers, on the other hand, played an extremely tough schedule this season, yet still managed to win 12 games on their way to a division title. And they beat one of the best teams in the AFC (Baltimore Ravens) 3 times. That’s not an easy feat. Those teams beat up on each other for 12 quarters, and some players either had season ending injuries or had to be carted off on a stretcher from all of the abuse. Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league, and defense wins championships. That will never be more evident in this game. Expect the Steelers to shut down that Cardinals offense, and to pound the ball on offense to open up their passing game. As good as Arizona has been playing lately, this is the exact type of team that they won’t be able to beat. Pittsburgh will put lots of pressure on Warner, and they will be physical with those very talented Arizona receivers. And that revitalized running game for Arizona will get shut down. This will disrupt Arizona’s offense and create turnovers. Big Ben has also been here before, and he will be able to rely on his running game to open up the passing game. And that’s just what will happen. The Cardinals got out to early leads in their past 2 games, but the Steelers won’t allow that to happen. And that Pittsburgh defense will wear down and frustrate that Arizona offense. I think that this game will get ugly, as Pittsburgh will eventually pull away and get those turnovers as the Cardinals try to rally. I like the Steelers to win big, and for the total to go over 46.5. Pittsburgh 38-17.

My Playoff Predictions:

Wild Card Round
Indianapolis over San Diego (X)
Baltimore over Miami
Arizona over Atlanta
Minnesota over Philadelphia (X)

Divisional Round
Baltimore over Tennessee
Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York over Philadelphia (X)
Carolina over Arizona (X)

Championship Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh (X)
Philadelphia over Arizona (X)

Super Bowl
Pittsburgh over Arizona

Fantasy Football

I only have 1 player left (Steve Breaston), and unless he runs or throws for a few TDs, then I just ain’t got a shot! I banked on Baltimore and Carolina making it to the Super Bowl, so that cost me any chance of winning this playoff league. But it was a good season as I came out 1st, 2nd, & 3rd in my three fantasy leagues.

Here’s my playoff fantasy team:

Jake Delhomme (out)
Jonathan Stewart (out)
Derrick Ward (out)
Steve Smith (out)
Kevin Curtis (out)
Steve Breaston
Todd Heap (out)
Matt Stover (out)
NY Giants Defense (out)
Flex – LenDale White (out)

Chim-Chim is beating Coop $1900 - $0 in the Fantasy Sports Book Championship. They each get a fresh $1000 to bet on the Super Bowl, so Coop must go all-in on a 2 team parlay and hope that Chim-Chim doesn’t make the same bet he does. So basically, it’s not looking too good for Coop at the moment. But you never know…..

Podcast

We haven’t had time to Podcast lately but we’ll have one up for the Super Bowl.

2009

Be sure to keep visiting the Porcupine in the offseason, as the message board will remain active, and we’ll be updating things periodically. Also, the site will undergo a facelift for next season, and we’ll have lots more information for you guys. We think that you’ll all love the new look and features that are coming in the Summer of 2009!

Good Luck everyone!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Championship Weekend
01/15/09

The underdogs continue to do well in the playoffs, as the Pittsburgh Steelers were the only favored team to win last weekend. I’m not the least bit surprised that Pittsburgh will face Baltimore in the AFC Championship. I am surprised, however, that Philadelphia will be travelling to Arizona for the NFC Championship. The Cardinals simply put it to the Panthers last Saturday night, and the Eagles did the same to the defending champion Giants on Sunday. But my surprise team of 2008 is still alive and kicking, and they’re still my pick to win it all. I’m expecting the Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles to both win and meet in the Super Bowl. And I expect the Baltimore Ravens to win the big game.

I was 2-2 on my picks yet again, as I got the AFC games correct, but missed with the NFC games. And it was costly to me in the Fantasy Sports Book, as I lost out in the semi-finals. Our finals will pit Coop vs Chim-Chim and will take place in the next 2 weeks. But what’s surprising is that as a league, we are only down $3,402 on the season. That’s after 19 weeks and $190,000 bet. And it also includes a couple of goose eggs in which people failed to make any bets. So we’re doing extremely well overall, and I’m very surprised at this. We now have a tie for the one-week highest total of $13,000 as one of our bottom dwellers finally hit the big one this past weekend. This is the last week that anyone has a legitimate shot to reach that total this season. I’ll be going all in with my fantasy $1000 trying to match that total. There just won’t be enough options to bet on for the Super Bowl to make that much money. So everyone will be going all-in this week, maybe with the exception of Coop & Chim-Chim!

The Porcupine was hot once again by picking on the Chargers. He’s now 11-8 (57.9%) on the season to guarantee a second consecutive winning season. Last year the Porcupine finished 14-7 (66.7%) overall. So while he may have gone cold for a couple of weeks there, in the end he’s still a winner! I’m now at 135-120-9 (52.9%) on the year, while Coop is at 126-129-9 (49.4%) as he struggles to reach 50% for the season. Coop has to go 3-0 on the Championship games and the Super Bowl to get to 50%. Picking every game of the season is tougher than it looks.

The Steelers and Ravens will face off for the 3rd time this season. Pittsburgh won the previous two meetings, but will find it extremely tough to win a third. Philadelphia will travel to Arizona as the Cardinals host an NFC Championship game for the first time. This is Donovan McNabb’s 5th trip to the NFC Championship game.

Week #20 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Ravens +6 over Steelers – These teams played very physical games the first two times they met this season, and I imagine that this game will be no different. Pittsburgh won the first meeting in OT 23-20 at home and the second meeting 13-9 in Baltimore. So even if the Steelers would win this game, I don’t think they can cover a 6 point spread. And as we all know, it’s very difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season, as the Cowboys found out last year. They beat the Giants twice in the regular season, only to lose to the eventual Super Bowl champions in the playoffs. And I think the same thing will happen here. While both teams are bringing in great defenses, Baltimore is the team that’s making more plays defensively and that will be the difference in this game. Big Ben has been sacked way too many times this season, and the Ravens will put pressure on him early and often. And I’m sure that Pittsburgh will pressure Joe Flacco the same way. But Flacco is much more mobile than Roethlisberger, and that is very important in this game. Look for Baltimore to use a few QB draw plays to take advantage of the Steelers aggressive defense. And the Ravens will attack downfield to keep the Steelers honest. But they won’t take any big risks. The Steelers, on the other hand, will try to establish a running game early, and they’ll find the going very tough. The team who turns the ball over less will likely win this game. Don’t expect either team to gamble much. This will be another low scoring, hard hitting, defensive game. And I think that the Ravens will come out on top, so I’m taking the points. Baltimore 12-9.

Eagles -3.5 over Cardinals – I didn’t expect either team to make it this far, so this is an unexpected pick for me. I like the Eagles because of their defensive play, and because of Donovan McNabb’s experience. The Eagles are much more balanced on offense than the Cardinals are. Arizona relies too heavily on their passing game, and the Eagles have one of the best secondaries in the league. The Cardinals were able to throw the ball effectively against the Panthers last week, but the Eagles will bring lots of pressure and won’t give Warner much time. And the Eagles will double and triple team Larry Fitzgerald, especially if Anquan Boldin can’t go. Unless Brian Westbrook cannot play (he’s expected to start), this game should easily be won by Philadelphia. They are just a superior team to Arizona, and it will show. Although the Cardinals have had a good run to this point, I just don’t think it will continue. I’m picking Philly to win and cover in the desert. Philadelphia 31-17.

My Playoff Predictions:

Wild Card Round
Indianapolis over San Diego (X)
Baltimore over Miami
Arizona over Atlanta
Minnesota over Philadelphia (X)

Divisional Round
Baltimore over Tennessee
Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York over Philadelphia (X)
Carolina over Arizona (X)

Championship Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Arizona

Super Bowl
Baltimore over Philadelphia

Fantasy Football

I lost too many players last week to be competitive, even though I still have 4 players left. I’m just too far behind and I don’t have a QB, RB, or Defense left. I was heavy with Carolina players, and they let me down last week.

Here’s my playoff fantasy team:

Jake Delhomme (out)
Jonathan Stewart (out)
Derrick Ward (out)
Steve Smith (out)
Kevin Curtis
Steve Breaston
Todd Heap
Matt Stover
NY Giants Defense (out)
Flex – LenDale White (out)

I lost out in the Fantasy Sports Book, as I had Carolina -4 on a big teaser bet. Now I can’t wait to do this all over again next year!

Good Luck everyone!

Podcast

We did a Podcast last week but I didn’t get around to posting it. We’ll try to do one for this week’s games, and we’ll have one for the Super Bowl.

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

4 Down, 7 To Go
01/07/09

Well all 4 wild card teams were favored last week, and the first 2 lost on Saturday, while the next 2 won on the road on Sunday. That put Coop & I each at 2-2 for the week. We both got the Ravens game correct and the Colts game wrong, and we split the other 2 games with opposite picks. I had Arizona, while Coop had Philly. I’m now at 133-118-9 (53%) on the year, while Coop is 123-128-9 (49%). I can now brag to Coop about beating him this season, as he has no chance to catch me anymore. I have a 10 game lead with 7 games to go. Victory is sweet! Especially after constantly hearing about his 50.6% correct last season that beat me. It was a brutal offseason!

The Porcupine got back to his winning ways with the Dolphins getting hammered by the Ravens. That Baltimore defense is great, and they show up in games that count. Tennessee will have a very tough game on their hands this weekend. Peyton Manning and the Colts will now be watching the playoffs after failing to put away the Chargers, who I still don’t think even belonged in the tournament in the first place. Does anyone really think that they can go into Pittsburgh and come away with a victory? I certainly don’t. Philadelphia now travels to New York to face the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants after disposing of the Vikings in Minnesota. Brian Westbrook is a special player, and he showed it once again this past weekend. And the Cardinals were able to knock off the red-hot Falcons, but now must go to Carolina for round #2.

Each game this weekend is a rematch of a regular season matchup, with the Giants and Eagles, who each won on the road in their regular season games, facing off for the 3rd time. The Steelers had already beaten the Chargers 11-10, for the only game to ever finish with that score (although Pittsburgh did have a last second TD called back erroneously). Carolina beat Arizona by 4 points just a few weeks ago, and Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 earlier this season. So it certainly makes for a great weekend of football!

Although the wild-card games didn’t go exactly as I predicted, my playoff predictions don’t change. I’m still picking Pittsburgh and Baltimore to win and face off for the AFC Championship, and for Carolina and New York to win and face off for the NFC Championship, and my Super Bowl prediction is still Baltimore over Carolina. I picked the Ravens as my surprise team this season, and they have not let me down. I really think they have what it takes to win it all.

Coop & I each had a bye in the Fantasy Sports Book and we both went for the single-week record earnings this week. But we both posted goose eggs. Now it’s back to playing an opponent, and the winners will meet in the Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book Championship Game, which lasts 2 weeks. We pay out for both 1st and 2nd place in our league, so the winners this week are guaranteed to make a profit. I was also competing in 2 of the message board leagues, where I advanced in one and lost out in the other. We will send a prize to the winners of our message board leagues.

Week #19 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Ravens +3 over Titans – Baltimore is my Super Bowl winner, so I’m certainly going to take them when they’re getting points! The first game between these 2 clubs was won by Tennessee 13-10 in week #5. But since then, these teams have been going in different directions. The Titans were 3-3 in their last 6 games, while Baltimore was 5-1 in that same stretch, and just added another victory in the playoffs last week. I’m not saying that Tennessee isn’t a good team, but I am saying that Baltimore is a much-improved and very dangerous team. I expect that the Ravens defense will show up once again, and limit the Titans to 13 or fewer points. But I think that the Ravens offense will be able to put up more than 13 points this time around. I would not be surprised to see Vince Young in this game with the way the Ravens get after the QB. Baltimore’s running game wears down opponents and takes advantage in the 4th quarter, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting in this game. Take the Ravens as they move closer to the Big Game. Baltimore 27-12.

Panthers -10 over Cardinals – This is a tough game to pick since the spread is at double-digits. If Anquan Boldin was 100% healthy, then I’d think about taking the points. But Arizona may be without one of their two star WRs, and that would spell doom for this squad. But I’d pick the Panthers to win outright either way, as Carolina is my NFC Super Bowl team. The Panthers can run the ball very effectively, which is something that Arizona cannot do. Carolina is just an overall more rounded and more talented team, and it’ll show that the NFC West champion Cardinals don’t really belong in the playoffs. Arizona won a terrible division and that will be obvious this weekend. Take the Panthers and spot the points as I see Carolina winning 34-13.

Giants -4 over Eagles – New York had a bye week to rest and prepare for this game, and they will wear down the Philadelphia Eagles. Brandon Jacobs is healthy enough to pound the ball for 4 quarters, and that will set up Eli Manning and the passing game. New York’s defense will get after Donovan McNabb and pressure him into making mistakes like he did earlier in the season when he was benched. The Giants cannot allow McNabb to sit back in the pocket because he will pick them apart, so their game plan will be to put lots of pressure on him to force those mistakes. Look for the Giants to hold the Eagles to under 17 points and to win by at least a TD. Take the G-Men at home. Giants 27-16.

Steelers -6 over Chargers – Pittsburgh would have covered the earlier game between these 2 squads if it weren’t for that blown call at the end of the game. This game won’t be so close. The Steelers had time to rest, while the Chargers are somewhat banged up. LaDainian Tomlinson may not even play, and even if he does he hasn’t been very effective lately. Pittsburgh’s defense is the best in the league, and they will shut down San Diego. I don’t expect the Chargers to score more than 10 points in this game either. Look for the Steelers to win this one by a landslide. Take the Steelers at home, as I’m picking them to win 31-10.

My Playoff Predictions:

Wild Card Round
Indianapolis over San Diego (X)
Baltimore over Miami
Arizona over Atlanta
Minnesota over Philadelphia (X)

Divisional Round
Baltimore over Tennessee
Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York over Philadelphia
Carolina over Arizona

Championship Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Carolina over New York

Super Bowl
Baltimore over Carolina

Fantasy Football

I scored the fewest points in my fantasy league last week, but I only had 4 players playing. I have not lost any of those 4, so I have a full squad heading into this weekend’s games.

Here’s my playoff fantasy team:

Jake Delhomme
Jonathan Stewart
Derrick Ward
Steve Smith
Kevin Curtis
Steve Breaston
Todd Heap
Matt Stover
NY Giants Defense
Flex – LenDale White

I have to figure out how to bet against my opponent in the Fantasy Sports Book this week. I think if I can double my money, then I should be able to get a victory. I won’t be shooting for the overall money leader this week. I need a win to get to the Championship game.

Good Luck everyone!

Podcast

Our Podcast has returned and will be back each week until the Super Bowl.

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

And They’re Off!
01/02/09

The 4 wild card teams are all favored on the road against divisional winners to open up the playoffs. At first glance, I liked all 4 to win and cover on the road, but after thinking it over, I’m taking 2 of the home teams this week. Last week provided us with some really entertaining and somewhat surprising football games. Who’d have thought that everything would go right for the Eagles to have a chance to make the playoffs, and that they would respond by annihilating the Cowboys? The Falcons got a scare from the Rams, but pulled through as the Panthers squeaked by the Saints to clinch the division and the 2nd seed in the NFC. Drew Brees had the passing record in sight, but missed on his last attempt to fall 15 yards short of Dan Marino’s record. But hats off to Brees for such a great season. If the Saints could only get better defensive play, they’d be right there in the mix of things right now.

Pittsburgh had a scare with Big Ben suffering a concussion in a meaningless game, which shows you why coaches sit their start players in these types of games. The Colts shut out the Titans, but Tennessee sat many starters in that one. The Dolphins completed a worst-to-first turnaround by beating the Jets to claim the AFC East. Brett Favre seemed to age as the season went along. I think he’ll finally hang up the cleats for good now. Baltimore easily handled Jacksonville to lock up the last wild-card spot. The Ravens are my favorite to win the Super Bowl. There’s just something about that team that I love. And those wonderful Lions stayed perfect with their loss at Green Bay. How much worse can a franchise get? Times are tough in Detroit these days. Not only is the economy hurting the auto industry, but the fans in Detroit can’t get away from it all by watching their team on Sundays. Let’s hope that the economy recovers faster than the Lions will!

But I think the worst part of the playoffs this year is the fact that San Diego won their division with an 8-8 record. There are many much better teams deserving of a playoff spot than the Chargers. And to make things worse, they actually get to HOST a playoff game! Hopefully this doesn’t become a trend in this league.

Last week I went 10-5-1 on my picks, while Coop was 7-8-1. I now have a comfortable lead on him with only 11 games to go. Overall, I’m sitting at 131-116-9 (53%), while Coop is at 121-126-9 (49%). So I’d have to have a serious meltdown to lose to him this season. I love the taste of victory! But the Porcupine dropped yet another game to fall to 9-8 on the year. He seems to have lost his touch in the 2nd half of the season. The same thing happened last season also. In 2007, the Porcupine started out 9-0, and this season was 7-3 after 10 games. We’ll have to investigate the downfall each year to see if it can be prevented. But I guess that’s why it’s called gambling, right?

Coop & I both have a bye in the Fantasy Sports Book this week, as I finished with the top seed, and he tied for 2nd, but won the tiebreaker due to his overall earnings. So we each get to make a big bet this week to shoot for the top weekly earnings and to pad our overall earnings. Such is the case for each team that missed the playoffs too. In the Fantasy Sports Book, it’s not over until the Super Bowl!

Now here’s the part that irks me the most – 2 women finished 1st & 2nd in our Pick’em game. And neither knows much about football! My wife finished 2nd, and her friend in Houston won the league title. Some things just don’t add up. But it’s nice to see them show such an increased interest in the games, and it’s funny to watch them dance and brag with their winnings.

We just had a fantasy draft for the playoffs, so I made my predictions and drafted accordingly. My Super Bowl pick is Baltimore over Carolina, so my fantasy team consists mostly of players from those 2 teams. My playoff picks and predictions are all below.

Week #18 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Cardinals +2 over Falcons – I think this will be a very high scoring game, and I originally liked Atlanta in this contest. But after thinking about it for a while, I changed my pick to Arizona. The Cardinals passing offense is very good, and the Cardinals are at home. It will be a great atmosphere for Arizona, and I expect the Cardinals to get off to a quick start. By doing so, they will take Atlanta out of their game plan, forcing them to throw more than they’d like. And that’s when rookie Matt Ryan will make mistakes. If this game does become a shootout, then I think Arizona has the upper hand due to their quick-strike offense. And that’s the type of game I expect to see, with Arizona winning 41-28. Take the points and the home team.

Colts -1 over Chargers – San Diego has no business being in the playoffs with an 8-8 record. And I don’t care how “hot” anyone thinks they are. Indianapolis is the hot team, and they will destroy San Diego. The Chargers passing defense is one of the worst in the league, and Peyton Manning will tear them apart. I also like for this game to go Over, as the Colts will put up lots of points. I’m expecting the Colts to win by a score of 38-24 or so. LaDainian Tomlinson has been a huge disappointment and I’ll be surprise if he actually plays the entire game. I have absolutely no confidence in the Chargers, so spot the point and take the Wild Card team here.

Ravens -3 over Dolphins – Miami has made a huge turnaround from last year’s horrible season, but they’re still far from being an elite team. I think that Baltimore is an elite team with a great defense and a very good young QB. I really don’t expect this game to be close, as Miami will struggle to find the end zone. I like the Ravens to win on the road and cover. I’m picking Baltimore to win 33-6, which barely puts the total over 37.5. Baltimore is my Super Bowl pick.

Vikings +3 over Eagles – Philadelphia had everything go right for them last week, and then they dismantled the Cowboys. But had it not been for those 2 longs fumble returns, that game could have been much different. I like Adrian Peterson in this game. He is a difference maker, and I expect him to make a difference this week. Minnesota can stop Brian Westbrook, and that’s a big key to beating the Eagles. I like the Vikings at home, and they’re getting points, so that’s just a bonus. My prediction in this one is Vikings 28-21.

Here are my top 10 teams after the regular season games:

1. New York Giants – They have the home-field advantage in their defense of the title. They are the favorites in Vegas.
2. Tennessee Titans – Getting shut out shouldn’t matter, but it could raise lots of questions at the wrong time of year.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – With the #2 seed and the #1 defense, they will be a force. Is Big Ben healthy?
4. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are my NFC choice to reach the Super Bowl. Steve Smith is a true weapon.
5. Indianapolis Colts – Can they show the Chargers that they really don’t belong?
6. Baltimore Ravens – With that defense they can go all the way, and I’m picking them to do so.
7. Atlanta Falcons – Can the Falcons stop Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin? I’m not sure that they can.
8. Miami Dolphins – They went from worst-to-first. How far can they take it now?
9. New England Patriots – They ended up being the best team to not make it to the playoffs. Will Brady return healthy next season?
10. Minnesota Vikings – With Adrian Peterson, then can win a game or 2.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – What an accomplishment! 0-16 is almost impossible to do, but they pulled it off. Sorry Detroit, I know you guys are going through hard times.
2. St. Louis Rams – Will Haslett remain? This team needs a makeover.
3. Kansas City Chiefs –This is my early surprise team of 2009. They have a good young QB to lead the way.
4. Cleveland Browns – Before the season started, I said that the Browns would be a big disappointment. But even I didn’t think they’d be THAT bad!
5. Seattle Seahawks – I’m sure Mike Holmgren is a happy, happy man now that he’s outta there!

My Playoff Predictions:

Wild Card Round
Indianapolis over San Diego
Baltimore over Miami
Arizona over Atlanta
Minnesota over Philadelphia

Divisional Round
Baltimore over Tennessee
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
New York over Arizona
Carolina over Minnesota

Championship Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Carolina over New York

Super Bowl
Baltimore over Carolina

Fantasy Football

Here’s my playoff fantasy team:

Jake Delhomme
Jonathan Stewart
Derrick Ward
Steve Smith
Kevin Curtis
Steve Breaston
Todd Heap
Matt Stover
NY Giants Defense
Flex – LenDale White

With my bye in the Fantasy Sports Book, I’ll try to break the one-week highest earnings of $13,000 with an 8-team teaser bet, and an 8-team parlay bet. It’s a long shot, but I don’t have to worry about losing this week, so I’m going for it.

Good Luck everyone!

Podcast

Our Podcast has returned and will be back each week until the Super Bowl.

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

This Is It!
12/26/08

With the last week of the regular season upon us, we’ll finally find out who makes it to the playoffs and gets a shot at the Lombardi Trophy. The Giants and Titans both secured home-field advantage, while there are still 2 NFC playoff spots and 3 AFC playoff spots still up for grabs. So there are lots of meaningful games this weekend. The top games include NY Giants at Minnesota, Miami at NY Jets, Denver at San Diego, Chicago at Houston, and Carolina at New Orleans. All of these games include a team that‘s trying to win a divisional championship. That and Drew Brees’ mission to top Dan Marino’s all time passing yardage mark for one season. Other games with playoff implications are St. Louis at Atlanta, New England at Buffalo, Oakland at Tampa Bay, Jacksonville at Baltimore, and Dallas at Philadelphia.

The AFC teams that can lock up a playoff spot with a win are Miami (division, 3rd seed), Baltimore (wild card, 6th seed), Denver (division, 4th seed), and San Diego (division, 4th seed). In the NFC, Dallas (wild card, 5th or 6th seed), and Minnesota (division, 3rd seed) can each clinch a playoff spot simply by winning. Carolina can clinch the NFC South and a first round bye with a win over the Saints. All of the other eligible teams need to win and get help to qualify for the playoffs or to get a better seed in the playoffs. I won’t even worry about ties, as they are rare and unlikely to happen this week. So sit back and enjoy watching it all unfold on Sunday!

Last week I went 10-6 on my picks, while Coop was 6-10. That puts me at 121-111-8 for the year, with Coop at 114-118-8. It looks like I’ll smoke him this season. I also was able to hold on to my #1 seed in the Fantasy Sports Book, and I’ve secured a first-round bye. Now I have one week left to try and top the new one week earnings record of $13,000. So it may be an all-in type of weekend on my quest to do so.

My survivor picks were 3-2 on the week, but I’m not so sure that too many people are still surviving in their leagues at this point. I won my first 2 survivor leagues, but I’m out of league #3. My survivor picks are below. The Porcupine recovered to improve to 9-7 last week after seeing all the snow in New England. The pick was posted about 1 hour prior to kickoff, so that pick may not have helped many of you out there. We’ll try to get the Porcupine’s Pick posted earlier this week.

I managed to win one fantasy football championship. I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in my 3 fantasy leagues. This season was rather enjoyable, especially since I was in the playoffs in all 3 leagues! Now it’s time to put all of my focus on the Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book. I like a bunch of games this weekend, especially when taken on teasers. Normally this is a tough weekend to pick, but there are many meaningful games, so it doesn’t seem to be as tough this time around.

So with week 17 already upon us, let’s get back to doing what we love to do, and that’s picking games! Also be sure to check out my playoff predictions below my picks.

Week #17 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Saints +3 over Panthers – Carolina will be focused on stopping Drew Brees from breaking Dan Marino’s record, and they will not take the Saints running game seriously. I expect the Saints to establish a solid rushing attack by halftime and for New Orleans to be in control of the game at that time. Then in the second half is when Sean Payton will turn Brees & company loose. The home team has won every NFC South game so far, and this week will be no different. The Saints are a better team without Reggie Bush in the lineup, as they are much more unpredictable. Carolina will give the Saints a tough game, but in the end, New Orleans will prevail. Take the points.

Raiders +13 over Buccaneers – I said I’d never pick the Raiders again this season, but I just can’t pass up the points. I do think that Tampa Bay will win this game, but I think that the Raiders will manage to hold within 14 points. I’m not crazy about this game at all, but I’ll take the points here.

Packers -9.5 over Lions – 0-16 is as good as done. I watched the Lions get schooled by the Saints last week and there’s nothing on that team, other than Calvin Johnson, that looks professional. Green Bay is mad after a very disappointing season, and they will take it all out on the Lions. Detroit has absolutely no chance of winning this game or even keeping it close. And after the Packers get a comfortable lead, the Lions will quit and just go through the motions wanting the season to end. It will be that ugly. Take the Packers at home and spot the points in my LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Eagles -1.5 over Cowboys – The Cowboys just need to win, and they’re in the playoffs. But Philadelphia stands in their way. The Eagles also have a shot at the playoffs, although they could be eliminated by kickoff. But that won’t stop the Eagles from trying to ruin the Cowboys season. I like the Eagles at home, and with the Cowboys hurting on offense, the Eagles defense will be able to make plays. Take the home team and watch as Dallas misses out on the playoffs this season.

Giants +6.5 over Vikings – The Vikings need this game to clinch the division, but the Giants won’t lie down and give this game to them. New York rode the momentum to a Super Bowl title last season, and they will follow that same formula this year. And I’m sure that they would rather have the Bears make it to the playoffs over the Vikings. Who would want to face Adrian Peterson in the playoffs? Even though Minnesota may win, I like the points here. But I do expect the Giants to win this game outright.

Bears +3 over Texans – Chicago has a lot to play for, while the Texans are only playing for pride to get to 8-8 for the second straight year. The Bears will match-up well with the Texans, and should win this game to make the playoff picture a bit more interesting. I like the points here.

Falcons -14 over Rams – Atlanta is trying to become the latest worst-to-first team in the NFC South, and they will be able to hold up their end as the lowly Rams come to town. St. Louis is simply a very, very bad team, and the Falcons will smoke them this weekend. I absolutely LOVE the Falcons to cover this big point spread and to win by at least 28 points. Atlanta is a young team that has played hard all season long, and the Rams are going in the wrong direction. The Rams can’t get this season to end soon enough. And that’s what it’ll feel like for them on Sunday. Give up the points in my OTHER LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Chiefs +3 over Bengals – I’ve been picking the Chiefs pretty often these past few weeks, with some success. I like this Kansas City team, and I think they will be much improved next season. This is one of the few meaningless games this weekend. I like that young Chiefs squad to win this game. Tyler Thigpen has shown that he can be the man in Kansas City. I’m not strong on this pick, but I’m going with the road dog.

Ravens -12.5 over Jaguars – This is a lot of points to spot, but that Ravens defense is playing like the defense that won a Super Bowl a few years ago. As long as Baltimore can score 20 or more points, they will cover and lock up a wild-card spot. That’s exactly what I expect to happen. Spot the points and watch as my surprise team of the year gets it done.

Colts +3 over Titans – The Colts are red-hot and will keep that momentum going. Tennessee has nothing to play for and will likely be the one team to rest their starters this week. They cannot afford to lose Kerry Collins before the playoffs start. Expect Vince Young to get back into the game, and to look bad once again. This game is in Indianapolis, so I don’t see the Colts laying an egg, even if this game has no meaning for them. Take the home dog here.

Steelers -10.5 over Browns – The Browns were shut out by the Bengals last week. Now they face the best defense in the league. Although Pittsburgh has the #2 seed locked up, I still expect the Steelers to play hard at home. There are still questions on this team that need to be answered. The offense needs to get things going again. And the defense is the best in the league. Look for the Browns to be held to 9 or fewer points. This is another game that I’m not crazy about, but I’ll spot the points.

Dolphins +2.5 over Jets – Who’d have thought that Miami would be battling for the division championship in week 17? That’s exactly what they’re doing, and they will win the division by winning this game. The Jets won in week #1, 20-14, but the Dolphins are much improved at this point. And Brett Favre is starting to show his age late in the season. Look for Miami to complete their big turnaround and to win the division this week after going 1-15 last year. Take the fish and the points.

Patriots -6.5 over Bills – New England is also trying to win the NFC North, and they will not go down without a fight. The Pats are capable of putting up the points, and they will do so against the Bills. Buffalo is a team that started hot and got cold. The Bills will stay cold and finish with a losing record yet again. Spot the points and go with the Pats here.

Seahawks +6 over Cardinals – Seattle has been playing a little better lately, just as Arizona has been laying eggs. The Seahawks are looking to give Mike Holmgren a nice going-away present, and they will give Arizona all they can handle. I have a feeling that this game will come down to a field goal, so I like the points here. That and the fact that Arizona really isn’t a very good team. And this game is meaningless to the Cardinals, as they have the #4 seed locked up.

Redskins +3 over 49ers – One more meaningless game, but I cannot see myself picking the 49ers two weeks in a row (especially after last week’s pitiful game). So I’m taking the Redskins and the points. Washington is another team that started off hot and got cold. This one could easily go either way, but I’m going with the points.

Broncos +8 over Chargers – If it weren’t for that blown call early this season by Ed Hochuli, the Chargers would already have locked up this division. But now it’s winner-take-all for these 2 teams. San Diego is certainly the hotter team, but the Broncos will be able to pick apart San Diego’s defense with Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal. I’m not sure that Denver will win this game, but I love the points here. Take the Broncos in this offensive battle.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #16 this year:

1. New York Giants – They have the home-field advantage in their defense of the title. Can they make it back to the big dance?
2. Tennessee Titans – Beating the Steelers showed that they have what it takes. Can they keep it up in the playoffs?
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – With the #2 seed and the #1 defense, they can go far in the playoffs.
4. Carolina Panthers – They were close to the top NFC seed, now they may end up as a wild card.
5. Indianapolis Colts – Beating Tennessee this weekend may not be a priority. Beating them in 2 weeks will be.
6. Baltimore Ravens – They are a win away from the playoffs. No one wants to face this defense right now.
7. Atlanta Falcons – With the Saints’ help, they just may win the division. They are the dark horse in the NFC.
8. Miami Dolphins – Can they really go from 1-15 to 11-5? Yes they can, and that would bring them a divisional championship.
9. New England Patriots – They may end up being the best team to not make it to the playoffs. But look out if they do.
10. Dallas Cowboys – They laid an egg and must win to get in. If T.O. keeps quitting on routes, they won’t even stand a chance.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – 0-16 is as good as done. Can they win in Green Bay? Yeah, right…
2. St. Louis Rams – Oh, so close!
3. Kansas City Chiefs –This team has as bright future.
3. Cleveland Browns – 1-7 at home? Are you kidding? And shut out by the Bengals?
5. Oakland Raiders – Hey, they got another win!

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #17:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Green Bay Packers
3. New England Patriots
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Miami Dolphins

Fantasy Football

Well, as I mentioned earlier, I managed to win one Fantasy Football Championship out of my 3 leagues. I came out 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in those leagues. So it was a fun and successful season! Now I can focus on the Fantasy Sports Book Championship.

My Playoff Predictions:

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Miami Dolphins
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC

1. New York Giants
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Carolina Panthers
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good Luck everyone!

Podcast

Our Podcast will return for the playoffs due to the holidays.

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Playoffs Are Taking Shape
12/20/08

With only 2 weeks left to go, there are still a few teams fighting for playoff spots, and for home-field advantage. The winner of the Giants-Panthers game will get the home-field advantage in the NFC, while the winner of the Titans-Steelers game will likely get the home-field advantage in the AFC. While the Panthers can clinch home field advantage with a win, they could actually miss the playoffs completely with losses in their last 2 games. It’s been a strange season indeed.

There are still a couple of good division races going on, with the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins all tied for the lead. The Jets have control of their own destiny since they play the Dolphins and have the better divisional record. If Carolina would lose on Sunday, then the NFC South would really get interesting. The Panthers may end up in a must-win situation at New Orleans for their final regular season game. Minnesota can clinch the NFC North with a win this week at home against Atlanta, or a Chicago loss. Denver just needs to win of its final 2 games to clinch the division, or have San Diego lose one of its final 2 games. But here’s where the Chargers still have a chance – those 2 teams play each other in week 17. So if the Broncos lose this weekend and the Chargers win, then that final game would be for the division title. So the Chargers could win that division with an 8-8 record! That’s just pitiful!

And speaking of pitiful, the Cardinals have clinched the NFC West, and they also could finish 8-8 if they don’t win again in the next 2 weeks. The Giants clinched the NFC East prior to their 2 game slide, and are still competing for home-field advantage. Tennessee also clinched the AFC South before the colts had a chance to catch them, and the Colts are hot. Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North with that spectacular defensive show last weekend. Baltimore is very much in the wild-card race, which makes their game at Dallas on Saturday very interesting. Both teams are fighting for wild-card spots. It’s all making for a very good weekend of football! My playoff seeding predictions are below.

I was 6-7-3 on my picks last week, and Coop went 5-8-3. I’m barely staying above 50% for the year with a 111-105-8 record, while Coop is at 50% with a record of 108-108-8. I was also able to overtake him in the Fantasy Sports Book this weekend. I moved up to 10-5 while he dropped to 9-6. I’ve pretty much secured a first-round bye in our playoffs, so it’ll be time to swing for the fence next week to try and get the highest one-week earnings for the year, and to try for the top overall earnings.

My survivor picks were 4-1 on the week, so hopefully you’re still surviving in your league! I won the first 2 survivor leagues, but I’m out of league #3. My survivor picks are below also. The Porcupine is in a serious funk right now, as he’s gotten the past 4 picks wrong. That little critter has gone cold on us at the wrong time of year! He’s barely above 50% with an 8-7 record. Losing 4 straight is painful. Here’s hoping he turns it around and gets hot again.

In my 3 fantasy football leagues, I won 2 games to reach those 2 championships this week. I have Drew Brees in both leagues, so I’m hoping that he can light it up against those hapless Lions! I’m playing for 3rd place in the other league, as that league actually pays out for 3rd & 4th places. So it’s been a fun fantasy season too. And after this week, fantasy football will be over with. But the Fantasy Sports Book lasts all the way through to the Super Bowl. Even for the teams who miss the playoffs or lose out. Everyone still gets to shoot for the highest one-week earnings and overall earnings. That’s one of the ways the Fantasy Sports Book is better than regular fantasy football. Everyone gets to enjoy it for all 21 weeks! And it’s in your hands each and every week. You don’t have to worry about injuries ruining your season.

But anyway, let’s get back to what we love to do. And check out my playoff predictions below my picks.

Week #16 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Colts -6 over Jaguars – Indianapolis is the hottest team in the league and clinched a playoff spot with their win over the Jags on Thursday night.

Ravens +4 over Cowboys – Both teams need to win to stay alive for a wild card berth, and I think that the Ravens defense will get it done. Baltimore’s defense is very good, and they will get to Tony Romo and pressure him into making mistakes. He’ll know he faced the Ravens when he wakes up on Sunday morning. Baltimore is very physical, and they will go into Dallas and win the last game in Texas Stadium. I like the Ravens straight-up, so I love the points. Dallas is good, but just not good enough.

Falcons +3 over Vikings – Atlanta can still go from worst-to-first in the NFC South, as has been done each year. This should be a very good game, and mistakes will doom the losing team. Atlanta will struggle to run against Minnesota, but rookie Matt Ryan has been a pleasant surprise and he can make plays against that Vikings secondary. If you want to watch a competitive game this weekend, then this one is for you. While I’ll take the points here, I won’t touch this game in the Fantasy Sports Book. I think it can go either way.

Chiefs +4 over Dolphins – Kansas City couldn’t hold on to beat the Chargers last week, which is common for a young team. But the Chiefs are very competitive, and they will not quit. Miami cannot come into this game taking the Chiefs lightly, or they will get hammered. The Dolphins need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. But I like the points, and I think that even if Miami wins, it’ll be on a late FG.

Saints -7 over Lions – The Saints are famous for losing games like this. But not this time. The Lions are pathetic on defense, while the Saints bring in the most potent offense in the league. Drew Brees will be going for Dan Marino’s passing record (even if they won’t admit it), and the Saints will put up enough points to cover here. The Lions will be the first team to get to 0-15, and they’ll have to win at Green Bay next weekend to avoid a winless season. While many people are picking the Lions to win their first game, I love the Saints to blow the Lions away this week. Spot the points as the Saints “Brees” to a victory.

Bengals +3 over Browns – This game will not interest many people, including me. But the Browns seem to have quit even more so than the Bengals have. Cincinnati is coming off of a win, and may actually have a little momentum and confidence in this one. I think this will turn into a fairly high-scoring game, with the Bengals coming out on top. Take the points.

Giants -3 over Panthers – This is the game of the week. The winner gets a good prize – home field advantage throughout the playoffs. And this game is in New York. The Giants are on a 2 game slide, but don’t give up on them yet. They are still the defending Super Bowl Champs, and the most rounded team in the league. With Brandon Jacobs returning to the lineup, the offense will be balanced once again. And the defense will pressure Jake Delhomme. Spot the points and go with the home team here.

49ers -5 over Rams – This is another “who cares” game, but can anyone actually pick the Rams? I know I can’t. San Francisco is the better team here, so I’ll take the 49ers and spot the points.

Steelers -2 over Titans – This is yet another defensive game, but the Steelers defense is far superior to Tennessee’s and they will smother the Titans. Pittsburgh is on a 5 game winning streak, while Tennessee has gone 2-2 in their past 4 games. The Steelers defense will not allow more than 10 points in this game, and they will put lots of pressure on Kerry Collins. I don’t think Tennessee’s offense can handle the Steel Curtain, and that this game will get ugly. I love the Steelers to cover.

Eagles -5 over Redskins – Washington lost to Cincinnati. Ouch. The Redskins are hurting on the O-Line, and Philly will exploit that weakness. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are both playing very well, and that will continue this weekend. The Redskins were hot early in the season, and they seem to be the NFC team that got cold at the wrong time. I love the Eagles to cover in this one.

Patriots -7.5 over Cardinals – Arizona will host a playoff game for the first time ever basically, but not because they are worthy. It’s mainly because their division is the worst in football. The Cardinals aren’t very competitive against good teams, and that’s what New England is. The Patriots have more to play for, and they are playing at home. This is another game that I love. Spot the points and go with the Pats.

Texans -7 over Raiders – Houston is hot late in the season yet again, and they will ride that momentum into Oakland. The Raiders are still a joke, and there’s no way I can pick them. I like the Texans to cover this week.

Jets -5 over Seahawks – New York controls their own destiny, and are ready to win their division. The Jets are playing well with Brett Favre and Thomas Jones leading the way. Seattle squeaked by St. Louis last week, but they won’t contend with the Jets this week. Take the road favorite in this one.

Bills +7 over Broncos – Denver really isn’t very good, but neither are the Bills. Denver needs this game so that they won’t have to beat the Chargers next week to win the division. The Bills will welcome back Trent Edwards this week and are looking to ruin the Broncos season. I’m not sure that Buffalo will win, but I like the 7 points here. So take the points.

Chargers +3 over Buccaneers – San Diego has to win in order to have a chance at winning their division. The Chargers have been the league’s biggest disappointment this season, but they’ll give their all this week. I’m not sure if they can win, but I like the points in what promises to be a close game. I think this game will be decided by a FG either way. So take the points.

Packers +4 over Bears – Green Bay has gone cold lately, but they’ll love nothing more than to ruin Chicago’s season. Ryan Grant was great in the first meeting, so look for Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings to have good games this time around. This game could actually be meaningless if the Vikings beat the Falcons this weekend. That would be more of a reason to take the Packers. I like Green Bay to win. So take the points.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #15 this year:

1. New York Giants – They’re on a 2 game slump, but the defending Champs are still by #1 team. A healthy Brandon Jacobs makes them the best team in the league.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – That defense is phenomenal. It’s good enough to help them secure home field this weekend.
3. Carolina Panthers – This team has been balanced, and that’s a big key to winning a championship.
4. Indianapolis Colts – Can you say HOT? They’re in the playoffs and have just as good a chance as any team to win it all.
5. Tennessee Titans – They have the best record, but I have serious doubts that they can get it done. They face their toughest test of the season this week.
6. Baltimore Ravens – That defense will give them a chance to make the playoffs. And the offense is getting better. They need to lock up the 2nd wild card spot. They must win at Dallas to have a shot.
7. Atlanta Falcons – The Dirty Birds are still eying the division title. It’s amazing how far they’ve come.
8. Philadelphia Eagles – That tie may end up helping this team in the long run. But they have to keep winning. And they can certainly do so.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – They face a desperate Chargers team. They can possibly clinch a wild card spot this week with a victory.
10. Dallas Cowboys – They can clinch a wild card spot with a victory against the Ravens. It will be a dogfight.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – 0-16 is going to happen. The Saints will light them up this weekend.
2. St. Louis Rams – This team is bad, bad, bad.
3. Cincinnati Bengals – They managed to get another victory. Can they do it again?
4. Kansas City Chiefs –The Chiefs have a bright future.
5. Oakland Raiders – Have all the coaches left?

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #16:

1. New Orleans Saints
2. New England Patriots
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. New York Jets
5. Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy Football

The playoffs are under way in most Fantasy Football Leagues. I made it to the championship game in 2 of my 3 leagues, and I’m facing the same opponent in both. A sweep would be lovely!

My Playoff Predictions:

AFC

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Tennessee Titans
3. New York Jets
4. Denver Broncos
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC

1. New York Giants
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Carolina Panthers

Good Luck everyone!

Podcast

Our Podcast will return for the playoffs due to the holidays.

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

We will not have a podcast until after the regular season for the wild card round. We've been really busy, and now we will try to enjoy the holidays. We will still be around making picks though!

The Home Stretch
12/10/08

Well now we’re down to the last three games of the regular season. Only three teams have clinched playoff spots, so most of the games are important now. This is good news for fantasy owners who are now battling it out in the playoffs. As long as the games count for something, the starters will stay in and the games should be interesting. There are a few really good games to watch this weekend, starting with the Thursday night game that sends the Saints to Chicago. Tampa Bay visits Atlanta in an NFC South showdown, Pittsburgh goes to Baltimore in an AFC North showdown, and the NY Giants visit Dallas on Monday night in an NFC East matchup that has huge playoff implications. This should make for a really interesting weekend of football!

I was 9-7 on my picks last week, which is an improvement from the previous weekend. It was enough to vault me past Coop once again at 51.7%, which is certainly not impressive, but I’ll take anything over 50% at this stage of the game. I also managed to go 4-1 on my Survivor Picks last week, getting only the Porcupine’s pick wrong. That little critter has gone cold on us these past 3 weeks. Here’s hoping he turns it around and gets hot again. We’ve received a few nasty emails after his latest cold spurt. I certainly hope that you guys don’t think that the Porcupine is perfect! And I certainly don’t recommend that you actually bet real money on his picks.

But feel free to bet all you want in the Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book! And speaking of the Fantasy Sports Book, Coop & I are tied for 1st once again, but he has more overall earnings so he’s in the #1 spot and I have the #2 spot at the moment. It looks like all we need is one more win each to secure a first round bye come playoff time. 2 wins certainly secures it for each of us. So my strategy at this moment is to just double up my money to get those wins, and then maybe go for the record earnings after I secure that bye. Easier said than done though!

I managed to make the playoffs in each of my three fantasy football leagues, and the playoffs start this week and last for two weeks in each league. So here’s hoping I can hit the hat trick. But it’ll be tough. I’ll be happy if I can secure at least one championship out of those three leagues. But after next week, fantasy football will be over with, but the Fantasy Sports Book lasts all the way through to the Super Bowl. Even for the teams who miss the playoffs or lose out. Everyone still gets to shoot for the highest one-week earnings and overall earnings. That’s one of the ways the Fantasy Sports Book is better than regular fantasy football. Everyone gets to enjoy it for all 21 weeks! And it’s in your hands each and every week. You don’t have to worry about injuries ruining your season.

But anyway, let’s get back to what we love to do.

Week #15 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Bears -3 over Saints – The Saints have gone to Chicago in the last 2 years in the cold and both times have come away with a loss. I don’t see this changing right now. The Saints just aren’t built for that type of game, and the temperature is supposed to get down to around 19 degrees for the game. That’s just not good weather for this Saints team. I think that Chicago will be able to pound the ball on New Orleans, and the Bears defense will be able to react to the Saints offense much better than if this game were in the Super Dome. I hate to say it, but there’s just no way that the Saints can keep their playoff hopes alive this week. Spot the points and take the Bears in the very cold Windy City.

Jets -7 over Bills – New York looked like a Super Bowl contender just a couple of weeks ago, but the Jets have dropped back into a 3-way tie for the division lead. The Bills have been struggling and I don’t have any faith that they can turn things around. I like the Jets to come out of their funk and get a solid win at home. So spot the points and take Jett Favre this week.

Dolphins -6 over 49ers – I’m not sure if it’s the pants-dropping that did it, but San Francisco has been playing better as of late and should give Miami all they can handle – for 3 quarters. The 49ers are making that long trip east once again, and something tells me that it’ll catch up to them by the end of the game. Miami still has everything to play for, so look for the fish to hold on to this game and cover in the 4th quarter.

Chiefs +5.5 over Chargers – This young Kansas City team will fight to the end, and that may not bode well for San Diego. The Chargers have been a big disappointment this year, mostly because of their horrible defensive play. I think this game will be a shootout and go over the point total of 46. Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez should both have big games, as should Philip Rivers. This is a game that’ll likely go back & forth and the last team with the ball may win by a FG. Take the points if you must play it, and enjoy what’ll likely be a very entertaining matchup.

Packers -1.5 over Jaguars – Green Bay is coming off 3 very disappointing losses after that shellacking of Chicago. Look for the Packers to get it together once again this week against a very weak Jacksonville team. Ryan Grant is healthy and along with Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings should spark Green Bay’s offense. It’s the defense that has been getting shredded lately, but the Jaguars just don’t have the offensive firepower to match them score-for-score, so take the Packers as they get back to their winning ways.

Colts -16.5 over Lions – Indianapolis is getting back into an offensive groove, which means trouble for the winless Lions. Peyton Manning is playing well and will not let Detroit get close in this one. The Lions will not get that elusive victory this week, and I don’t think it’ll even be close. The Colts are making a statement, and Detroit will get the worst of it. Indy should win this game by over 21 points.

Bengals +7 over Redskins – I don’t like this game one bit. The Bengals are not good, and the Redskins are going backwards. Washington’s offensive line just got a little weaker, and that’s the only reason I’m taking the Bengals in this one. I will not touch this game in the Fantasy Sports Book, but I’ll take the points here since I have to pick it.

Broncos +7 over Panthers – Carolina is coming off a very impressive win against Tampa Bay, but Denver brings a much better offense to town. I think the Panthers will get caught sleeping in this one as the passing game of Denver lights up the scoreboard. I like the points, and I actually like the Broncos to win straight-up this week. Take the points.

Seahawks -3 over Rams – This is the “why must they even play it” game of the week. I’m not sure that anyone will actually be watching outside of St. Louis or Seattle. There aren’t even any fantasy players to watch on either team. I seriously doubt that anyone with Steven Jackson is in their league’s playoffs right now. And he’s likely the only player from those teams who’s even on a fantasy roster these days. I’ll go against the Rams since they seem to be even more helpless than the Seahawks. This is another game that I won’t touch in the Fantasy Sports Book.

Texans +3 over Titans – Tennessee has already locked up the AFC South as Houston is starting to come around. With Matt Schaub back, the Texans are a real threat to each opponent, and the Titans may be underestimating them now. Houston can still win out and finish with a winning record, and the Texans will certainly go for it. I think that this will be a very close football game, so I’m taking the points.

Falcons -3 over Buccaneers – The home team has won every NFC South game so far, and this week won’t be any different. The Bucs were shredded by the Panthers physical running game, and that’s exactly what Atlanta brings to the table with Michael Turner. This should be another very good game, but I’m going with the undefeated at home trend here. And I’m hoping that the Falcons cover the spread in the process.

Steelers +2 over Ravens – I’m tempted to take Baltimore in this one, especially since they are my surprise team of the year. But there’s something about this Pittsburgh team that prevents me from picking against them. The final score here may very well be 2-3 either way, but one thing’s for sure, it’ll be a very physical game that neither team will forget. I think that the Steelers bring a slightly better defense to this game and that’s the only reason I’m picking Pittsburgh.

Cardinals -3 over Vikings – Both teams are one-dimensional on offense – but in different ways. Arizona will throw for over 300 yards, while the Vikings may very well rush for over 300 yards. This is a very interesting matchup. Special teams will play a huge part in the outcome of this contest. I’m taking the home team as they ride the momentum from their crowd.

Patriots -7 over Raiders – Are you kidding me? Oakland sucks, and New England has something to play for. It’s as simple as that. There’s no way that New England falls to Oakland, or lets them even keep it close. Take the Patriots and spot the points.

Giants +3 over Cowboys – The G-Men enter this game as a rare underdog, which is probably a good thing for New York. The Giants defense will pressure Tony Romo into making mistakes. Romo has not been good in December and that will not change. The only chance Dallas has is if Marion Barber is healthy. Otherwise, I don’t give Dallas any chance to win. But even with Barber, I still like the Giants to win. T.O won’t be happy when this one is done.

Eagles -14 over Browns – This is looking like one horrible Monday night game. Philly has been on fire lately, and the Browns are ice cold. Their 3rd string QB will get pummeled by the Eagles defense. I really don’t like this contest, and I won’t touch it in the Fantasy Sports Book.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #14 this year:

1. New York Giants – Sure they lost, but I still think they’re the best overall team in football right now. They can prove it in Dallas this weekend.
2. Tennessee Titans – Will they get caught napping in Houston? Home field advantage is still on the line.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – It may not be pretty, but they get it done. That defense just doesn’t give up many yards or points.
4. Carolina Panthers – With that running game, they can play with anyone. But they’d better watch out for the Broncos passing attack.
5. Baltimore Ravens – This is their week to prove that they are contenders. A defensive struggle is upon us.
6. Indianapolis Colts – Don’t look now, but the Colts are on a 6 game winning streak and now control a playoff spot. They are rolling when it counts.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – They must improve their defensive play after that embarrassment on Monday night. They get another physical running team this week.
8. Arizona Cardinals – They get to host a playoff game for the first time ever in Arizona. Times are good for the Cardinals.
9. Atlanta Falcons – The Dirty Birds get another NFC South team this week – but this time at home where this division is undefeated in divisional games. Can they keep it up?
10. Philadelphia Eagles – Records don’t always tell the whole story. There are teams with better records than Philly, but the Eagles are playing as well as any team right now.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – 0-16 is going to happen. They still suck.
2. St. Louis Rams – I don’t think Haslett will keep this job.
3. Cincinnati Bengals – Have they completely given up on the season?
4. Seattle Seahawks – They battle for last place in the division this week. They have to be better than the Rams, right?
5. Kansas City Chiefs – They will get another victory.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #15:

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. New England Patriots
3. Miami Dolphins
4. New York Giants
5. Philadelphia Eagles

Fantasy Football

The playoffs are under way in most Fantasy Football Leagues. I’m in the playoffs in all 3 of my leagues and hoping for a championship or 2 or 3. I’m also tied for 1st place with Coop in the Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book League. It’s now do-or-die time! And I managed to win 2 Survivor Leagues already this year. Football has been a blast this season!

Good Luck everyone!

Podcast

Our Podcast has returned as normal and should be back each week.

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Time To Regroup
12/06/08

After a brutal 6-10 week, I need to regroup and get on a winning streak again. Although I had a great Thanksgiving holiday, the football games weren’t all that good. And my picks were even worse. It’s time that the NFL stops giving the Lions & Cowboys a home game every Thanksgiving. One of those games should be reserved for the defending Super Bowl Champs, and another for the Super Bowl runner-up. And then the NFL Network game could be whatever they feel would be a good game. Having to watch the Lions get hammered on a holiday like that was just painful. (But it didn’t ruin my appetite!)

To go with my bad week, the Porcupine also dropped another game as Carolina rallied to beat the Packers. The Porcupine has been very grumpy lately, so let’s hope that little critter gets back on track this weekend! And those Saints blew an opportunity to get back into the playoff hunt. Drew Brees got the yards, but the interceptions were lethal. Now I think Sean Payton will make sure that Brees gets the passing record. So if you have Brees in your fantasy football league, you may be in for a great run at the championship.

In the Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book League, I suffered a lopsided loss to Coop, as he set the new weekly earnings record against me by earning $11,700 to re-claim 1st place. I’m still in 2nd place, and I have a feeling I’ll face Coop yet again in the playoffs. As a league, we made $13970 (thanks to Coop), and we are now only down $668 for the entire season, which is very impressive considering we’ve bet a total of $130,000 so far. We are almost beating the bookie, and I can’t stress just how impressive that is at this stage of the game.

We missed our podcast last week due to the holiday vacation, but we’re back on track this week. We’ve been really busy lately, but things should return to normal next week. As I did last week, my survivor picks were 3-2 again. My top 5 Survivor picks are below my weekly picks.

Now let’s get to picking games again!

Week #14 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Chargers -9.5 over Raiders – This is not a game that I'm crazy about. The Raiders just aren't any good, and the Chargers are the most disappointing team in the league this year. But I think that San Diego should be able to simply outscore Oakland since they boast a much better offense. LT needs to get a good game together (he's been a big fantasy disappointment this year also). The game is in San Diego, so the home crowd should be ready for the national stage, and hopefully the team is as well. I'm going to spot the points in this one.

Giants -7 over Eagles – The Giants are clearly the best and most well rounded team in the NFL right now. The Plaxico Burress incident won’t affect the G-Men, as they can overcome anything. Philly, however, is too up-and-down to go into New York and seriously compete. And to make things worse, Brian Westbrook is questionable. Even if he plays the whole game, I don’t’ think it’ll be enough as the Giants defense is as solid as they get. Spot the points and take the home team.

Titans -13.5 over Browns – Sure it’s a lot of points, but the Browns are down to their 3rd QB, and Tennessee has a very good defense. The Titans are at home and will run the ball and stop the run and should be able to win by at least 14. So give up the points here.

Falcons +3 over Saints – I’ve picked against the Saints twice this season, and got it wrong both times. But the Falcons are playing great football, and the Saints are struggling. Drew Brees will get his yards yet again, but it probably just won’t’ be enough, as Michael Turner will pound the ball and Matt Ryan will continue his Rookie of the Year production. Although I’d love to see the Saints win this game easily, I just really don’t’ see it happening. Take the Falcons and the points.

Packers -6 over Texans – Houston was able to go into Cleveland recently and get a win, but going to the frozen Tundra will just be too much for the Texans. Green Bay is now in a must-win situation and will put their best foot forward this week. Look for the Packers to light up the score board and to cover the spread.

Colts -13.5 over Bengals – Cincinnati doesn’t have what it takes to stay within the points at Indianapolis. The Colts have been struggling, but they will show that they are contenders this week. Peyton Manning is poised for a monster game, and the defense should have a field day against the Bungles. This is another big spread, but lay the points and go with the home team.

Vikings -9.5 over Lions – Coach Rod Marinelli says that the Lions won’t go 0-16, but how is that avoidable? The Lions stink, and there’s no team left on their schedule that they can beat. They will go 0-16. And it’ll be more of the same this week as Adrian Peterson slashes his way to over 100 yards. The Vikings won’t lose their DTs to suspension this week, and that’s bad news for Detroit. Vikings easily win by a couple of TDs.

Bears -6.5 over Jaguars – Chicago is at home against a warm-weather team, and they’ll be loving it. The Bears defense will stop the run, and Matt Forte will get to pound the ball all game long as Chicago easily covers in this one.

Ravens -5 over Redskins – The Ravens defense will force the Redskins into making mistakes, and that’s the key to beating Washington. Look for Baltimore to shut down Clinton Portis and to put the game in Jason Campbell’s hands. Campbell makes mistakes when under pressure. And Baltimore’s offense has been coming along and will put just enough points on the board to cover the spread. Take the Ravens.

Dolphins (even) over Bills – Buffalo loses a “home” game as the Dolphins travel to Canada to face the Bills. The Bills want the roof open, which shows just how scared they are in this game. Miami will pounce on the Bills and win this game. Take the fish.

Chiefs +9 over Broncos – The Chiefs are a young team that just doesn’t quit, which is why I like the points here. Denver is leading the division, but they’re the least impressive division leader in the league. Look for Kansas City to ambush Denver. The Broncos will find themselves struggling to get into the playoffs after this week. Take the points.

Jets -4 over 49ers – The Porcupine said this is the Lock of the Week, so that’s good enough for me! The Jets are a very good team, and there’s just no one else that can pull down their pants to help out San Francisco. Take Jett Favre in this one.

Cardinals -14 over Rams – It’s the Lambs. If it weren’t for the Lions, the Rams would be the worst team in football. Kurt Warner is hot and the Cardinals will finally lock up the NFC West. It’s a lot of points, but Arizona should win by at least 28. It’ll get that ugly.

Steelers -3 over Cowboys – Pittsburgh at home with the best defense in football? And the Cowboys without Marion Barber? This one will be tough for Dallas. In fact, I don’t think it’ll even be close. The Cowboys needed Barber at his best just to compete in this game. Now the Steelers can tee off on Tony Romo, and that’s the key to beating Dallas. I LOVE the Steelers this week. Take them and run with it!

Patriots -4.5 over Seahawks – New England is going to keep the pressure on the Jets, and the Seahawks can’t do anything about it. Seattle just couldn’t get it together this year, and they’re ready to end the season. The Patriots, however, have something to play for. Look for Matt Cassel to have another monster game and for the Patriots to rout the Seahawks.

Buccaneers +3 over Panthers – Tampa Bay is the better overall team here, and they are looking to become the first repeat NFC South Champion since the re-alignment. Both teams have very good defenses, so it’s the QB play that’ll likely make the difference. I’m going with Jeff Garcia’s scrambling ability to be the difference in this game. I like the Bucs and the points on Monday night.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #13 this year:

1. New York Giants – They are rolling along like there’s no competition. Can the Eagles compete?
2. Tennessee Titans – Will the Browns knock off the 2nd best team also? Very doubtful.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – They passed a tough test at New England. Now they get the Cowboys.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – After beating the Saints, the Bucs are in control of the NFC South, which may be the best division in the league.
5. Carolina Panthers – A Monday night showdown will likely decide who wins the NFC South.
6. New York Jets – They need to rebound well this week and make a statement against a bad 49ers team.
7. Baltimore Ravens – This was my surprise team of the year, and I still believe. Defense wins championships. And the offense is coming around. They are for real.
8. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts are returning to form, and that’s bad news for each opponent down the line. Peyton is still one of the best.
9. Atlanta Falcons – The Dirty Birds are looking to fly out of New Orleans the same way they flew out of San Diego – with a victory. Can the Saints prevent that from happening?
10. Indianapolis Colts – Don’t look now, but the Colts are ROLLING! Are they the dark horse?

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – 0-16 is going to happen. They suck.
2. St. Louis Rams – Too bad they don’t play the Lions. That would be terribly funny to watch.
3. Cincinnati Bengals – They got hammered. Again. Will this season ever end?
4. Seattle Seahawks – How things have changed. First to worse?
5. Kansas City Chiefs – They will be better. This is one team that has a bright future. A win this week gets them off this list for good.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #14:

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Tennessee Titans
5. New York Jets

Fantasy Football

Are you still competing in your fantasy leagues as the playoffs near? I’m still in it in all 3 of my leagues, and I’m hoping to take home a championship or two. And I’m battling with Coop in the Fantasy Sports Book for the top spot. Football has been a blast this season!

Good Luck everyone!

Podcast

Our Podcast has returned as normal and should be back each week.

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Our Picks are in the Podcast
12/06/08

Our picks are in the latest Podcast (#21). I'll have my picks and write-up posted on Saturday night. Good Luck!

Thursday Night Game
12/04/08

Just a quick pick for tonight's game. The rest of my picks will be posted on Friday. Coop & I have been either very busy or away on vacation these past 2 weeks. Our podcast will return on Friday also.

Chargers -9.5 over Raiders – This is not a game that I'm crazy about. The Raiders just aren't any good, and the Chargers are the most disappointing team in the league this year. But I think that San Diego should be able to simply outscore Oakland since they boast a much better offense. LT needs to get a good game together (he's been a big fantasy disappointment this year also). The game is in San Diego, so the home crowd should be ready for the national stage, and hopefully the team is as well. I'm going to spot the points in this one.

How About Dem Saints!
11/26/08

I knew that the Saints had a good chance of winning on Monday night (even though I picked against them), but I certainly did not see that kind of a performance coming! The Over 51 was my best play of the week, and it was an easy one after all. I hope some of you got lucky with that one, especially since the Porcupine let us down again by missing with Cleveland to drop to 8-4. And I wasn’t quite as good with my survivor picks this week, as I went 3-2 and lost out in Survivor #3 with Cleveland. Coop & I both lost with Denver in Survivor #1, but since we’re the only 2 left, we both survive until one of us wins it outright.

I did manage to take over the #1 spot in the Fantasy Sports Book League, as Coop & I are both now 8-4, but I have more overall earnings than Coop does. And we face-off head-to-head this week for sole rights to that #1 spot. I did lose the title of Money Leader though, as someone hit for $11,100 to pass me up by $3500. That was very impressive, especially since he hit on 3 separate bets to reach that total. I have to tell you, the Fantasy Sports Book is even more enjoyable and fun than fantasy football, and I’m doing really well in my fantasy football leagues!

Speaking of the Fantasy Sports Book, as a league we are still down $4637 for the year. There are only 4 of us who are making a profit, although there are 2 other teams that are at the break-even mark. It’s been really tough to beat the bookie, and lots of people are finding out just how hard it really is. I think the fact that you have a set amount to bet with each week keeps everyone in control, and that is the key to winning in Vegas. You’re not tempted to catch-up after losing, or vice-versa, throw away your winnings because you’re playing with “house money”. I think that last one is the biggest reason most people can’t win in Vegas. You have to realize that when you’re up, it’s ok to stop and take those winnings! The Fantasy Sports Book is a great warm-up for anyone who’s going to Vegas to bet on football.

Don’t forget - there are 3 games on Turkey Day, so get your picks in early in your pick’em games, and get those bets in if you want to play those games in the Fantasy Sports Book. After the first game starts on Thursday, those 3 games will all be locked out of the Sports Book, although it’ll appear that you can still bet on them, it’ll kick out those bets if you try. Also be sure to get all of your fantasy football lineups in on time each week if your league has early deadlines.

As I mentioned earlier, my survivor picks were 3-2 last week and I lost out in one of my leagues because of this. But I’ll try to rebound this week with better picks. My top 5 Survivor picks are below my weekly picks.

Week #13 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Lions +11 over Titans – It’s tough picking Detroit, but it’s Thanksgiving Day and that’s just too many points to give up in this game. The Lions are clawing and scratching in every game and they will give Tennessee all they can handle. The Titans fell last week to the Jets and will have lost some of that swagger that they had in the first 10 games. Tennessee needs to return to their ball-control offense in order to get back on track. The Lions will make them throw the ball more than they like, and that’s where I think the Lions will be able to make plays on defense to keep this game close. I’m not crazy about this game, but I’ll be watching with a full belly and enjoying my day off with the family. So take the points and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Seahawks +12.5 over Cowboys – This is another game that I can’t pass up the points on. Seattle has not been very good this year, but they are capable of staying within double-digit point spreads. I think Dallas will be overconfident, and that’s dangerous. Seattle will show up wanting to hit the Cowboys and T.O. in the mouth, and I think that they will give the Cowboys a scare in this game. I’m sure most of you will be napping by this game, but take the points.

Cardinals +2.5 over Eagles – Arizona found out first-hand what it takes to become an elite team after getting schooled by the Giants, but they’ll be ready to face the Eagles. Kurt Warner is on fire, joining Drew Brees by throwing for over 3500 yards at this point. Philly, meanwhile, has QB issues with Andy Reid benching Donovan McNabb last week. You don’t bench your franchise QB. Ever. Things are going downhill in Philly, and Arizona will capitalize on it. Once again, I’m going with the underdog on Thanksgiving Day. And once again, I’d like to wish everyone out there a Happy Thanksgiving!

Dolphins -7 over Rams – It’s the Rams. They are horrible – even worse than Miami was at this time last year. Miami is playing good football, and they should have no problems with St. Louis. There is absolutely no reason to think that the Rams even have a shot in this game. Take the Dolphins and spot the points.

Ravens -7 over Bengals – Cincinnati is coming off a long week after playing last Thursday night, but they’ll need more than that against this Ravens defense. To go along with their defense, Baltimore’s offense has been coming around and they’re getting better each week. The Bengals have too many issues to be a serious threat to the Ravens, so take the Ravens and spot the points. Baltimore has something to play for.

Bills -7 over 49ers – Buffalo is the team that I expected to go cold after their red hot start, but they won’t sputter this week against the pants-dropping 49ers. San Francisco has not responded to Mike Singletary and his underwear, and I’m sure they’re just waiting for this season to end. Not many RBs run as hard as Marshawn Lynch does, and it’s his running that will wear down the 49ers. Take the home team and give up the points.

Jets -7.5 over Broncos – Denver just got waxed by the Raiders, and New York just best the unbeaten Titans. Look for that trend to continue in this game. The Jets are at home and they are the superior team here. Brett Favre has gotten comfortable in his offense, and that’s bad news for every Jets opponent. Take Favre and the Jets and give up the points, as New York should win this one by at least 14.

Saints +3.5 over Buccaneers – I was tempted to take Tampa Bay since New Orleans seems to play great when I pick against them, but I don’t think that will be necessary this week. The Bucs have been struggling even in their recent wins, and they can’t afford to struggle against the Saints’ juggernaut offense. Drew Brees is the best football player in the NFL right now, and he’ll carve up Tampa Bay’s cover 2 defense for lots of yards and points. The Saints, ironically, are better offensively without Reggie Bush, although Bush will be back on Sunday. The Saints need this win to keep any post-season hopes alive. And they will get the win, so take the points in this one.

Giants -3.5 over Redskins – The New York Football Giants are the best team in the league, and Washington will learn that lesson yet again this week. There’s nothing that the Giants can’t do. They will force the Redskins into 3rd & long situations where they can make plays on defense. The Giants want everyone to know that they are the defending Super Bowl Champions, and they will do just that. Spot the points and take the road team here.

Colts -4.5 over Browns – Indianapolis is returning to form at the right time of year, and Cleveland is going in the opposite direction. Peyton Manning is starting to look like the Peyton of old, and so are the Browns. Cleveland goes back to Derek Anderson at QB after placing Brady Quinn on IR. Things just aren’t’ going right for the Browns this season, and it won’t get any easier this week. Take the Colts and spot the points in my LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Packers -3 over Panthers – Green Bay was shredded by New Orleans on Monday night, and they return home to heal their wounds. The Panthers are the unfortunate team to meet up with such a desperate Packers team at the Frozen Tundra. Green Bay will get back on track against a sputtering Carolina team. Take the Packers and give up the points in my OTHER LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Falcons +5.5 over Chargers – Atlanta is HOT, and they are getting all those points this week? The Falcons are playing very well in all 3 phases of the game, while the Chargers are terrible on defense. Michael Turner will upstage LT, especially since the Chargers will be forced to throw the ball. I’m not sure that Atlanta can win this game, but I love them with the points. San Diego is no bully. Take the points in what should be a tight game.

Patriots -1 over Steelers – I would take the home team in this game either way, so since they’re in New England, I like the Patriots to win. The Steelers have the league’s #1 defense, but the Patriots have been rounding into form with Matt Cassel at the controls. I think New England will make enough plays to win this game and keep pace with New York in their division. Take the home team as the Patriots will send the Steelers into a tie with Baltimore in the NFC North.

Chiefs +3 over Raiders – I’ve been waiting a few weeks for Kansas City to get it together and win another game. I think it happens this week. The Chiefs are a young team that will fight to the end, and the Raiders don’t have much fight left in them. Kansas City knows that they won’t get many opportunities to win again, and that this is one of them. I think they will make the most of it and beat Oakland straight-up. So take the points.

Vikings -3 over Bears – Chicago gave up over 200 yards rushing to
Green Bay a couple of weeks ago, and the Vikings and Adrian Peterson are licking their chops this week. This whole division is still up for grabs, and this is a key game in that race. I like Minnesota at home to shred the Bears defense and for the Vikings defense to shut down Chicago. Take the Vikings and give up the points.

Jaguars +3 over Texans – This is one game that I’m just not crazy about. I think that Jacksonville matches up well with Houston, and that they should be able to run the ball effectively in this game. The Texans just upset the Browns and the Porcupine. I don’t have much faith in Sage Rosenfels, so I’m taking the points. Not much more reason for it than that.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #12 this year:

1. New York Giants – They claim their rightful place as the home stretch begins. The Giants are at the top looking down on the rest of the league.
2. Tennessee Titans – They finally fell, but they still can hold on to home field advantage in the AFC. Or can they?
3. New York Jets – Jett Favre has this team peaking at the right time. Tennessee had better watch out, or home field just may go through New York in the AFC as well as the NFC.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers – They have a tough test this week at New England. And they may be without Willie Parker.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – They have a very tough test with New Orleans and Drew Brees coming to town. A win would be great for their divisional hopes.
6. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are struggling and could be falling fast. They face a desperate Green Bay team at Lambaugh. It will be extremely tough.
7. Baltimore Ravens – They got back on track by whipping Philly, and they should continue their winnings ways against the Bengals this week.
8. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts are returning to form, and that’s bad news for each opponent down the line. Peyton is still one of the best.
9. New England Patriots – Matt Cassel is no Tom Brady, but he’s the next best thing right now. The Patriots are true contenders again.
10. Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are for real. And Carolina just found out the hard way. Michael Turner returns to San Diego looking to upstage LT.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – Will they be thankful on Turkey Day?
2. St. Louis Rams – They will take over the top (or bottom) spot if the Lions win a game. The Rams are horrible.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – Can they get it all together and play a complete game? They are young and will get better.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – So much for going 3 weeks without losing. They just have too many issues.
5. Seattle Seahawks – They’ve been replace by the Cardinals as the class of the division. Things have been better in Seattle.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #13:

1. New York Jets
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Indianapolis Colts

Happy Thanksgiving!

I’d like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, and I hope that you all get to spend time with your family while pigging out and watching football. That’s what Coop & I will be doing!

Good Luck everyone!

Podcast

Be sure to listen to our Podcast each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, please give us a good review!

Our 21st Podcast will be short & sweet this week due to the holiday. I may have to go solo or get someone to fill in for Coop since he's away on vacation. We’ll resume with a normal Podcast next week.

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Not Bad for a Losing Week
11/20/08

Although I was 7-9 overall for the week, I hit my 3-team parlay in the Podcast, and that helped me to make $1989.15 in the Fantasy Sports Book. I also went 4-0-1 in my Survivor picks, and I survived once again in all 3 of my Survivor Leagues. So all things considered, it was a successful weekend! And the Rabid Porcupine bounced back with Tennessee’s victory over Jacksonville. With my winnings in the Fantasy Sports Book, I’ve taken over as the Money Leader with $16,030.10 for the year, which puts me up a little over $5000 to this point. In addition to my 3-team parlay, I also hit on a 9-team teaser bet to bring in an additional $500. The Dolphins cost me about $7500 more, as I had them minus 4.5 points on another teaser bet. I was that close to really busting loose. I love those teasers! I will hit a big one before this season is over.

Speaking of the Fantasy Sports Book, as a league we are now down $8342 for the year. There are only 4 of us who are making a profit. Coop is still in first place at 8-3, and I’m now only one game behind him at 7-4. It seems as though people are swinging for the fence with their bets, as I have the one-week high earnings of $5866.15, which is the goal for everyone to beat at the moment. I’m sure that total won’t last very long. We pay out to the 1st place winner, 2nd place, highest overall earnings, and highest one-week total. So far, I have the latter 2. It’ll take another good couple of weeks to keep it that way I’m sure. Someone is bound to hit for $10,000 or more. I just hope it’s me! But in the meantime, since they are going for the big payout, we have teams posting goose eggs each week as they risk their whole bankroll on a single parlay.

Don’t forget - there are now 16 games each week to pick, and there’s a Thursday game in each of the next 5 weeks, so be sure to get your bets in for those games in the Sports Book if you want to play them prior to the start of the first game that day. You’ll still be able to bet the remaining games after this deadline, but those early games will be locked out (It’ll appear that you can still bet them, but if you try, they’ll be rejected). And be sure to get all of your fantasy football lineups in on time each week if your league has early deadlines.

As I mentioned earlier, I managed to survive in all three of my Survivor Leagues yet again. I’m still battling it out with Coop in Survivor #1, and there are still 2 of us left in Survivor #2. Everyone in Survivor #3 made it to next week to pick again, so there are still 13 of the 17 participants still remaining in that one. I was 4 out of 5 on Survivor picks last week, with the other being a tie. A tie is good for us, but may lose in other league. This brings my past 5 week total to 22-2-1. I guess that’s why I’m hanging around in all 3 of my leagues! Speaking of, my top 5 Survivor picks are below my weekly picks.

Week #12 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Bengals +10.5 over Steelers – The Steelers escaped with an 11-10 win last week that had lots of bettors angry. A blown call stopped them from covering the spread. The Bengals managed to go a 3rd straight week without losing, as they tied the Eagles. I’m not crazy about this game one bit, but I think it should be a low scoring affair, which is why I’m taking the points. The Bengals will try hard, as they won’t want to “look” bad on national TV. I fully expect Pittsburgh to win, but it’s just too many points to give up. Take the dog.

Vikings +2.5 over Jaguars – Jacksonville has no business being favored in this game. The Vikings have the league's 2nd best rushing defense, and they will shut down the strength of the Jaguars offense. The Jaguars have the 20th ranked rushing defense, and Adrian Peterson will shred them for many yards and will give enable the Vikings to control the football in this one. I absolutely LOVE Minnesota in this one. Take the road dog in my LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Chiefs +3 over Bills – Buffalo has gone cold, and they will be ambushed by a determined Kansas City squad. The Chiefs have been playing hard each week and are getting better. They have a young team that just doesn’t quit. Tyler Thigpen has 2 great weapons with Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe. The Bills, on the other hand, have lost 4 of their last 5 after a great start. Buffalo should be able to run the ball effectively, but I don’t think it’ll be enough. I like the Chiefs at home to win this game straight-up.

Patriots +2 over Dolphins – The last time these teams met, Miami smothered New England to break their long winning streak. The Patriots won’t fall for that Wildcat offense again. They will be prepared, and they will have a few surprises of their own. Matt Cassel has been improving every week and will be ready for the challenge. Look for the Patriots to avenge their earlier loss and to win this game in Miami. Take the road dog once again.

Lions +8.5 over Buccaneers – Detroit is bound to win a game this season, and they are at home. It’ll be tough for them to win, but I like the points. Tampa Bay is 7-3 overall, but they are 2-3 on the road. And they are now down to Warrick Dunn as their main RB. I smell an upset here. Take the home dog, and watch as the Lions give the Bucs all they can handle.

Jets +4.5 over Titans – Tennessee is still rolling as the only undefeated team remaining, but they will be seriously tested against the Jets this week. The Titans don’t blow teams away, but they find ways to win each week. Brett Favre has been improving as he gets more comfortable with the offense and his receivers. It will all come down to how well he handles the pressure from that very good Titans defense. If he doesn’t make his famous mistakes, then the Jets can actually win this game. I like the points, as Tennessee plays ball control offense and will settle for a 3 point victory if they have to. Take Jett Favre and the points here.

Bears -8.5 over Rams – Chicago was embarrassed by Green Bay last week and they will be looking to bounce back. What better way than to play the Lambs? St. Louis is terrible, and it’s as simple as that. And now they’re without Orlando Pace and Steven Jackson. Take the Bears, but don’t waste your time watching this game.

Panthers +1 over Falcons – Carolina has struggled these past 2 weeks against 2 very unimpressive teams (Detroit & Oakland). And Atlanta has been playing very good football up to this point. Everything points to taking the Falcons. But I think this is where the Panthers get it all together again, and get a solid win against a very good Falcons club. Carolina is the best team in the NFC South, and it will show this weekend. Take the Panthers to win.

Ravens -1 over Eagles – Both teams are coming off disappointing games. Baltimore was manhandled by a true contender, while Philadelphia tied a terrible Bengals team. The Ravens are at home and their defense will make sure that they shut down McNabb & Westbrook. McNabb won’t have to worry about the rules in this one, as he will be pressured all game long and certainly won’t want to go into OT. Although hopefully he now knows that games CAN end in a tie! Take the Ravens, as they get back into contention in the AFC.

Browns -3 over Texans – Houston is 0-5 on the road and they’ll find that the dog pound will be rocking and rolling in what’s likely to be cold weather. The Browns have been coming around and have a spark with Brady Quinn behind center. Houston, however, is struggling with Sage Rosenfels and will continue to do so this week. Take the home team and spot the points.

Cowboys -10 over 49ers – I thought about taking the 49ers, but then I realized once again just how bad they are. You have to forget about that victory against the Rams, as the Rams are possibly the worst team in football right now. Dallas has something to play for. And with Tony Romo back and the defense playing like the games mean something to them, the Cowboys are once again a threat in the NFC playoff picture. Dallas is at home and they have something to prove. The 49ers are just on the wrong side of things here. Spot the points, as the Cowboys should win BIG.

Broncos -9.5 over Raiders – Denver will show no mercy to Oakland. The Raiders suck. It’s as simple as that. This is one game I won’t be playing in the Fantasy Sports Book. But if you must pick it, take the home team. They have something to play for.

Giants -3 over Cardinals – New York is the real deal. Arizona is lucky to be in the NFC West. But I was still tempted to take the Cardinals and the points. Why is that? I like Arizona’s offense. Kurt Warner is having an MVP-type season. He has the best WR group in the league to throw to, with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin leading the way. But the Giants are good in every aspect of the game. I don’t like the fact that they’re making that long trip to the west, but defense wins games, and that’s what the Giants bring. Lots of defense. They have 31 sacks and 14 interceptions, and they will be looking to cash in on the Cardinals passing attack. Offensively, the Giants are solid, as they can run and throw the ball very effectively. This is a game that I’ll pay close attention to this weekend. I don’t feel strong about it, but I like the G-Men to keep on playing well and to get another win. Take the Defending Super Bowl Champs.

Seahawks +3.5 over Redskins – This is my upset of the week. Washington wins games by not making mistakes. But they will play in the loudest stadium in the league in Seattle, and the 12th man will be the difference here. Matt Hasselbeck is back and should be more prepared to play than he was last week. Seattle has not been playing well this season, but this could be the week that they get things together. Even if Washington wins, it should be by 3 or less. Take the points.

Colts +2.5 over Chargers – The Chargers have the league’s worst passing defense, and that’s bad news with a rolling Peyton Manning coming to town. The Colts are on a 3 game winnings streak and are getting into a groove offensively, with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne returning to form along with Manning. The Colts defense also has Bob Sanders back, who makes this unit a good one. The Chargers are struggling and will continue to do so this week. Take the road dog once again, as the Colts should win this game fairly easily.

Packers +2.5 over Saints – Green Bay is coming off a game in which they totally dominated Chicago. The Packers ran for over 200 yards in that one. While I don’t think that Green Bay will get 200 yards rushing, I do believe that they should be the favorite to win this game. New Orleans is hurting defensively, as Jason David is back on the field. Aaron Rogers will go downfield often against this weak Saints secondary. On the other end though, Drew Brees will find a way to shred the Packers 3rd ranked passing defense. I just don’t think it’ll be enough. The return of Reggie Bush could make a difference for the Saints. While I want to pick the Saints, my head tells me otherwise. Take the road team here, and take the Over 51.5. These two teams will light up the scoreboard.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #11 this year:

1. Tennessee Titans – They’re #1 since they haven’t lost yet. I’m not convinced that they are the absolute best team at this point.
2. New York Giants – This team is the most balanced in the league. They are well on their way to another Super Bowl appearance.
3. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have struggled recently and must play better this week against a good Falcons team. This is an important divisional game for Carolina.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers – The defense is the best in the league. If Big Ben can cut out the turnovers, then they will be a force to reckon with.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – They passed a tough test against AP & Company and now must not let their guard down while visiting the winless Lions.
6. New York Jets – Jett Favre has brought this team to the top of the division with that impressive game at New England last Thursday night. They now face the Titans of the AFC. Can they pull off the upset?
7. Baltimore Ravens – They got whipped by the Giants, but this defense can respond like no other in the league. They face a struggling Eagles squad now.
8. Arizona Cardinals – They pretty much locked up the division with that win at Seattle. Can they challenge anyone in the playoffs?
9. Indianapolis Colts – Don’t look now, but the Colts have reeled off 3 straight wins. Their offense is starting to click at the right time. Can they go into San Diego and beat a desperate Chargers team?
10. Dallas Cowboys – Dallas has Tony Romo back and the Cowboys have started to play better defensively. Can they challenge for a playoff spot now?

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – All they need is a win to leave this spot. It’s bound to happen, right?
2. Oakland Raiders – They almost got another win at Miami but couldn’t hold on. Things are not going well in Oakland.
3. St. Louis Rams – How much lower can they go? They were hammered by a bad 49ers team. Maybe Haslett should pull down his pants at practice this week.
4. Kansas City Chiefs – They do have something to look forward to – they are a young team that’s not quitting. This team will be good in the next couple of years.
5. Cincinnati Bengals – At least they haven’t lost in 3 weeks. Of course, they got one win, one tie, and a bye during that time, so it’s not all peachy for the Bengals.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #12:

1. Chicago Bears
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Denver Broncos
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Minnesota Vikings

College Football

The Alabama-Florida match-up in the SEC Championship game is one I’m really looking forward to. Most people have the Gators winning that game, but I like the Crimson Tide and Nick Saban. Stay posted. The winner will be my favorite to win the National Championship.

Podcast

Be sure to listen to our Podcast each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, please give us a good review!

We have just finished our 20th podcast of the year, and we’re getting more listeners every day. Our podcasts have been downloaded over 44,000 times already this year! We’re also setting new records with traffic to the website each week.

We’d like to welcome all of the new visitors to our site, and we want you all to know that we’re taking your feedback seriously! There seems to be a high demand for both pick’em and survivor games on the Porcupine, so that’s something we’ll work on for next season. Please let us know what you would like to see in the future. We’ve had a few requests, like live scores and more games. We will give the site a facelift in the off-season, so your feedback is important to us.

Be sure to log in before you vote on the pick’em poll, as your username is recorded with your picks. We’re posting the top 5 each week, so if you’re logged in, you’ll see your username in the leader board if you are worthy!
And remember, if you want a reply to your emails, be sure to include a return address with your message if you use the “email us” option on the website.

Keep up the good work Porcupine Nation!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

The Porcupine Let Us Down…
11/13/08

The Rabid Porcupine really missed the mark with the Atlanta Falcons last week, and it cost me in the Fantasy Sports Book. But I still managed to win my match-up by a score of $743.50 - $435.91. I’ve improved my record to 6-4 overall and even gained on our money leader. Coop is still first in the standings with an 8-2 record, while Chim-Chim is still our money leader with $15,276.54. I’m also second in overall earnings with $14,040.95. After 10 weeks of betting $1000 each week, there are still 4 teams who are making a profit. As a league, we’re down a total of $4803.18, which isn’t too bad considering some folks are just swinging for the fence for the highest weekly earnings and overall earnings. I think I’ll sort of scale back my betting and try to double my money each week. But who knows, I get greedy when placing my bets just like everyone else!

I was 8-6 overall on my picks again this past week, but I was 10-4 with those same bets as teasers. I’m realizing just how valuable making those teasers can be. Teasers can act as a good insurance policy on your normal parlays. It’s something to look into.

Now that the bye weeks are over, there will be 16 games each week to pick, and there’s a Thursday game in each of the next 6 weeks, so be sure to get your bets in for those games in the Sports Book if you want to play them prior to the start of the first game that day. You’ll still be able to bet the remaining games after this deadline, but those early games will be locked out. And be sure to get all of your fantasy football lineups in on time each week if your league has early deadlines.

I managed to survive in all three of my Survivor Leagues yet again. I’m still battling it out with Coop in Survivor #1, and there are still 2 of us left in Survivor #2. Survivor #3 lost one more player last week, as Coop fell with the Saints. So there are still 13 of the 17 participants still remaining in that one. I was 4 out of 5 on Survivor picks last week, which brings my past 4 week total to 18-2. I guess that’s why I’m hanging around in all 3 of my leagues! Speaking of, my top 5 Survivor picks are below my weekly picks.

Week #11 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Patriots -3 over Jets – The Jets romped the Rams last week, but the Patriots are a much better team than St. Louis. New England has to find ways to win each week, and they are managing to do just that, as they’re tied with New York for first place in the division at 6-3. The game is in New England, and the Patriots will make life miserable for Brett Favre on Thursday night. Expect New England to be alone in first place after this game in which they beat the Jets by double-digits. Spot the points.

Ravens +6.5 over Giants – The Giants have been getting tested by some very good teams lately, and they’ve been passing with flying colors. But this week they’re matched with another great defensive team, and this game will likely come down to the wire. The Giants have the better offense, but Baltimore has been improving, as Joe Flacco gets more experience and looks more comfortable running his offense. I’m going with the points, as I think this will be a low scoring game that will be won by a FG. So take the points and get ready to see a great defensive game.

Vikings +4 over Buccaneers – Minnesota barely got the win over Green Bay last week, but it’s Adrian Peterson who made that happen. AP is a game-changing running back, and he’ll continue his domination this week against Tampa Bay. The Bucs are coming off a bye week after barely beating a bad Chiefs team. The Vikings are have the momentum here, and they will ride it to a victory in Tampa Bay. Take the Vikings and the points, as they should win this game outright.

Dolphins -10.5 over Raiders – It’s the Raiders. Simple as that. Oakland has to make that long journey to Miami after losing yet another game last week. The Raiders picked off Jake Delhomme 4 times, but still lost by 11 points. Miami will open up the Wildcat offense on Oakland and should win this one easily. It’s a lot of points to spot in this league, but it’s the Raiders. Give up the points, as the Dolphins have something to prove.

Chiefs +5 over Saints – New Orleans was whipped by Atlanta, and in the process lost yet another defensive player when CB Mike McKenzie went down. The Saints simply don’t have a good enough defense to contend, and the Chiefs have been showing signs of life on offense lately. While Drew Brees & company should yet again put up well over 400 yards of offense, the Saints defense will give up lots of yards and points also. Something tells me that Kansas City will extend New Orleans’ road record to 0-5. Even if the Saints manage to win, it’ll likely be by a FG or less. It hurts me to have to do this, but take the home dog here. And if you’re looking for an extra play, take the Over in this game. These teams will combine for over 60 points.

Titans -3 over Jaguars – Tennessee is still rolling as the only undefeated team remaining, and they won’t stop rolling in Jacksonville. The Titans haven’t had to face a really tough team yet this season, and they’re making the most of it. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has not been playing well, as evidenced by their loss to the Bengals a couple of weeks ago. Sure, they’re coming off a big win against Detroit, but the Lions are horrible. Tennessee is focused and they’ve shown that they’re not a one-dimensional team, as they were held to only 20 yards rushing last week and still won by a TD. Take the undefeated Titans once again.

Texans +8.5 over Colts – Houston has been building their defense solely to beat the Colts, and they will match-up well with Indianapolis. Everyone likes to think that Peyton Manning is back on track and that the Colts are back. I’m not buying it. Peyton is still not completely recovered from his pre-season knee surgeries, and the Texans are getting desperate. Houston lost to the Colts a few weeks ago after having the game all but won late in the 4th quarter. The Texans will be ready to avenge that loss. Take the points, and don’t be surprised to see Houston come out of Indianapolis with a victory.

Packers -5 over Bears – Green Bay needs this game to stay in contention in the NFC North. The Packers have the luxury of facing Rex Grossman, and they should be able to turn that into a nice win. The Bears held the Titans to only 20 yards rushing last week, but still managed to lose. If they shut down Ryan Grant, then Aaron Rogers will pick them apart. Chicago’s only hope is to get an early lead to sit on, but I don’t see that happening. Take the home team, as they are more desperate and will be ready for this one.

Eagles -9 over Bengals – It’s the Bengals. Cincinnati is at home and getting 9 points, but they’re just not a very good team. In fact, they suck. Philadelphia is coming off a tough loss against the Giants that they should have won. They will make up for it this weekend by blowing out a bad Bengals club. The Bengals got a win a couple of week ago, and won’t be very motivated in this one. Philly has to win this game to stay in contention for a wild-card spot. Take the Eagles and spot the points.

Panthers -14 over Lions – Carolina was fortunate to be playing the Raiders last week, as Jake Delhomme threw 4 interceptions and only completed 7 passes. But sometimes that’s all it takes against a bad team. Well, the Panthers get another cup-cake on their schedule this week. The only weapon on the Lions team is Calvin Johnson, and there’s no one to get the ball to him. Daunte Culpepper certainly is not the answer, and he’ll get pressured all day long by the Panthers solid defense. Carolina should win this one by 30. Spot the points in yet another lopsided match-up.

Broncos +5.5 over Falcons – Atlanta played a solid game against New Orleans, but they still gave up 422 passing yards to Drew Brees. Jay Cutler is just as dangerous, and he has even better weapons to throw to. For the Falcons to win this game, they will have to keep up with Denver’s passing attack and create turnovers. I just don’t see that happening. Denver will win this game straight-up, so take the points.

Cardinals -3 over Seahawks – Arizona had to hold on to beat San Francisco on Monday night, but they should have a much easier time against a bad Seattle team. The Cardinals are by no means a great team, but they are head and shoulders above the rest of their division, and they have an easy road to the playoffs. Look for Kurt Warner to yet again pass for over 300 yards and a couple of TDs, and for the Cardinals to win by double-digits. I won’t be watching this game, but I’ll take the Cards minus the points.

Rams +6 over 49ers – Do they really have to play this game? Will anyone actually care who wins? Maybe the two interim head coaches do, but that’s about it. I’m taking the Rams since they were beaten so badly last week and they’re getting the points. I will not bet on this game in the Fantasy Sports Book, and I would not even be picking it if I didn’t have to here. If you have more insight on this one, please tell me all about it!

Chargers +4.5 over Steelers – This game matches up a great defense against a good offense. Pittsburgh is struggling on offense without Willie Parker, and with Big Ben throwing interceptions. But the Chargers have the worst pass defense in the league, so this should end up being a fairly high-scoring game. Philip Rivers has been playing well, and there’s always the threat of LaDainian Tomlinson to break a big one. I like the points here, and I think that the Chargers can win this game outright. I also like the Over 43 in this one.

Redskins -2 over Cowboys – Dallas is just another over-hyped team, while the Redskins have been quietly winning games by not turning the ball over. Tony Romo won’t be able to save the Cowboys – the problems with this team go much deeper. The Redskins are winning because they run the ball very well with Clinton Portis and they play smart football by not turning it over very often. If the Cowboys think that Romo will save their season, then they’re living in denial. Take the Redskins and spot the points.

Browns +4.5 over Bills – Cleveland showed offensive life with Brady Quinn last Thursday night, and that’s just the spark they need to get a couple of more wins this season. Buffalo is a team that started out hot and looks to be cooling off. Cleveland should be able to put up a few points on the Bills and hold within the point spread. I like the points here, and I expect the Browns to get the win.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #10 this year:

1. Tennessee Titans – They’re still rolling as the lone undefeated team, and they may not get a real challenge until week 16 when they face the Steelers at home. Home field advantage in the AFC is theirs.
2. New York Giants – Another test, and another passing grade. The Giants are playing well in all phases of the game and are the favorite to get home-field advantage in the NFC.
3. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers essentially get their 3rd straight bye week this week since they are facing the Lions. Next week’s game at Atlanta will be huge.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers – The defense will have to step up yet again until the offense can get rolling. LT is coming to town this week.
5. Baltimore Ravens – After 9 weeks, the Ravens are showing that they are for real. My surprise team is living up to my expectations.
6. Washington Redskins – They come off their bye week to face the Cowboys, who are also coming off a bye week and who get Tony Romo back. The Redskins can make a strong statement by knocking off Dallas this week.
7. Tampa Bay – Another team coming off a bye week. They face a tough Vikings team with the best back in the game. Adrian Peterson will test their defense.
8. Arizona Cardinals – They can already be crowned division champions since the rest of their division is so terrible. Kurt Warner is having an MVP-type season. But can they win when it counts?
9. New England Patriots – They can take their division back by beating Brett Favre and the Jets. It should be a great game.
10. Atlanta Falcons – The Dirty Birds are playing well with a rookie QB and a rookie coach. Can they keep up their winning ways?

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – Can things get worse for this club? It doesn’t look good again this week.
2. Oakland Raiders – They managed to pick off Jake Delhomme 4 times, but they still lost by 11 points. It’s not a good time to be a Raider fan.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – They face a hurting Saints team this week and they actually have a good chance to win another game this week.
4. San Francisco 49ers – Let’s see, it’s the last play of the game, and you run the ball, but not with your best player? It’s no wonder that they’re on this list.
5. St. Louis Rams – That was embarrassing. It doesn’t look like Jim Haslett will get to become a head coach again in this league anytime soon. His interim status will run out soon.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #11:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Arizona Cardinals

LSU-Alabama

The Tigers played much better than I expected, but alas, they still could not get the win. Alabama will have to get by Florida to win a National Championship. The SEC Championship game should be a good one.

Podcast

Be sure to listen to our Podcast each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, please give us a good review!

We have just finished our 19th podcast of the year, and we’re getting more listeners every day. Our podcasts have been downloaded over 40,000 times already this year! We’re also setting new records with traffic to the website each week.

We’d like to welcome all of the new visitors to our site, and we want you all to know that we’re taking your feedback seriously! There seems to be a high demand for both pick’em and survivor games on the Porcupine, so that’s something we’ll work on for next season.

Be sure to log in before you vote on the pick’em poll, as your username is recorded with your picks. We’re posting the top 5 each week, so if you’re logged in, you’ll see your username in the leader board if you are worthy!
And remember, if you want a reply to your emails, be sure to include a return address with your message if you use the “email us” option on the website.

Keep up the good work Porcupine Nation!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Riding the Teaser Wave!
11/07/08

I’m really starting to love the teaser bets. In week #1 I hit a 12-team teaser (it was 13, but one game was postponed), and just this past weekend, I hit an 8-team teaser to set our new one-week record earnings in the Fantasy Sports Book League with $5866.15. And in one of the Message Board Leagues, I hit a 9-team teaser to win a total of $7616.80. Ole Seahawkharry felt the wrath of that one, as I’ve gotten off to a big lead in that League! So while we give our best picks each week, don’t forget the power of the teaser bet. If we give our best teams for a parlay, then be sure to take them in a teaser also, as an insurance policy. While I went 8-6 on my picks last weekend, I was 12-2 with those same picks on teasers, which is why I was so successful in the Fantasy Sports Book Leagues. I didn’t touch the two I got wrong, so success was inevitable.

Speaking of the Fantasy Sports Book, Coop is still alone in first place at 8-1 with overall earnings of $13,346.52, while I’ve jumped into 2nd place at 5-4 with earnings of $13,297.45. This is after betting a total of $1000 each week ($9000 total bet). We are 2 of only 4 people who’ve managed to turn a profit up to this point. The others are our money leader, Chim-Chim with $15,276.54, and Primetime89 with earnings of $10,470.63. As a league, we’re still down $5522.36 on the year. So while some people are beating the bookie, most cannot do so. How are you doing in your league? Have you managed to beat the bookie yet?

Things are really taking shape in the NFL at this point. This is the last week that teams will have byes, so there will be plenty of football from this point on. The Titans are living up to their name, as are the Giants. The Steelers and Panthers are getting it done also. What do these teams have in common? Defense. Very good defensive play will take you a long way. In fact, the worst record for a team with a top 8 defense is 6-3 (Washington & Tampa Bay). So keep that in mind when picking your games each week. Teams with great defenses can overcome an average offense.

At this point in the year, there are always teams that are hot that will get cold, and vice-versa. Personally, I’m expecting the Buffalo Bills to be one of those teams. The Bills don’t have a very tough schedule coming up, but don’t expect them to win enough games to make the playoffs. They will likely have to win their division to make it into the playoffs, and I just don’t see that happening. One of the cold teams that I expect to make a push from this point on is the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have been last in their division for most of the season, but they still have 4 divisional games left to play, and their remaining games are very winnable. Look for the Saints to get on their first winning streak of the year this week.

My Survivor Leagues were very stressful last week, as I had to sweat out the Tampa Bay game. I was very fortunate to survive in that league. My other 2 Survivor picks were Arizona and Philadelphia. It’s still only Coop & me in Survivor #1, and me & on other guy in Survivor #2. Survivor #3 still has 14 of the 17 participants remaining. I think they’re taking my picks each week! Speaking of, my top 5 Survivor picks are below my weekly picks.

Week #10 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Broncos +3 over Browns – Jay Cutler is the experienced QB in this game, and he has many weapons to use. Brady Quinn gets a favorable match-up in his first start, but he's not seasoned and it will show. The Browns have been far from impressive, but so have the Broncos. I like the desperate Broncos team more than the desperate Browns team. Take the points in this one.

Lions +6.5 over Jaguars – This is a dangerous game to pick. The Lions are the lone winless team, and the Jaguars just let the Bungles get their first win against them last week. Daunte Culpepper will likely get the start for Detroit this week. There’s too much uncertainty in this game. I won’t touch it in the Fantasy Sports Book. But since we have to pick it, I’ll go with the desperate Lions club and the points. Jacksonville just can’t seem to get anything going, and they don’t seem to have any motivation.

Ravens -1 over Texans – Houston will be facing a very tough Baltimore team, and I expect the Ravens to play outstanding defense. The Texans will be going with backup Sage Rosenfels. He’s a capable backup, but he’ll make mistakes against this great defense. Joe Flacco is looking much more comfortable, and he will manage the game well. Look for Derrick Mason to have a good game, and for the Ravens to win by double digits. Spot the point.

Dolphins -9 over Seahawks – How things have changed. Seattle has the worst passing offense in the league and is tied for last in a very bad division, while the Dolphins own the 9th ranked offense and are still very much alive for their division championship. The Seahawks have to make that very long trip to Florida once again. I like the Wildcat offense going against Seattle’s 27th ranked defense. Mike Holmgren has to wonder why he came back for another season. I have absolutely no faith in Seattle, so go with the Dolphins at home and give up the points.

Titans -3 over Bears – Tennessee is for real, and they must be licking their chops this week. The very physical Titans defense gets to harass Rex Grossman this week, and that spells trouble for the Bears. The Titans will roll to 9-0. Take the road team here, as the Titans should win by at least a TD.

Saints +1 over Falcons – Atlanta is coming off a very impressive win at Oakland. The Falcons gave up a total of 77 yards to the Raiders last week and simply dominated them. But now Drew Brees comes to town. He will shred the Falcons defense and the Saints will b e able to slow down Atlanta’s #1 rushing attack to force rookie Matt Ryan to have to throw the ball and try to keep up with the Saints. He won’t be able to do it. The Saints will put up 400+ yards of offense and 30+ points. This is my LOCK OF THE WEEK! Take the road dog here, as Atlanta is about to learn a lesson, courtesy of Professor Brees.

Vikings -2 over Packers – These 2 teams played a great game on opening weekend. Look for a repeat this week. The Vikings are at home, and they still have the best runner in the game. Adrian Peterson will get many yards against Green Bay’s loose defense, and the Vikings will take this game at home by at least a FG. Take the home team and spot the points.

Rams +8.5 over Jets – This is just too many points for a mistake-prone Favre team to spot. St. Louis does not impress me one bit, but the Rams are capable of making plays against the ole Gunslinger. Jim Haslett will have this team fired up and ready to play. I like the Jets to win, but not cover. So if you must play it, take the points.

Patriots -3.5 over Bills – New England returns home after that close game at Indy. The Patriots are still a very good team, and they’re still in first place. They will knock the Bills out of first place for the first time this season. Buffalo is likely that one team that started hot and will get cold and miss the playoffs. Take the Patriots at home, as they’re not likely to lose consecutive games.

Panthers -9.5 over Raiders – Only 9.5 points? It’s the Raiders! Against the Panthers! Carolina will pick up where Atlanta left off. I’ll be surprised if the Raiders can score this week. Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith have been hot lately, and the defense will smother Oakland. JaMarcus Russell is not ready for the NFL, and I’m not sure that many people in the Raiders organization are. Spot the points, as this one will get ugly very quickly.

Steelers +3 over Colts – Pittsburgh and underdog at home? C’mon, it’s not the Colts of old here! The Steelers defense will get to Peyton Manning and force him into making mistakes. The Steelers defense will keep up their high level of play while the Steelers QB situation will work in their favor. Willie Parker is out, but the Steelers will find a way to win. Take the points, and take them on the money line!

Chiefs +15.5 over Chargers – San Diego has the worst pass defense in the league, and will surrender a few scores here. That’s entirely too many points to spot when you can’t play defense. Kansas City has been playing better with Tyler Thigpen throwing to Dwaye Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. And the Chiefs may have found a RB in Jamaal Charles. This will probably end up being a high scoring game. I like the Chiefs and the points, and I like the Over 47.5.

Giants +2.5 over Eagles – I simply cannot pass on the Giants as an underdog. New York looks like the defending Super Bowl Champions. They are playing well in all aspects of the game. While Philly is also a very good team, I’m just going with the better team. This will probably be the best game to watch this weekend. Take the Champs and the points. And have a few cold ones while watching what should be a great game!

49ers +9.5 over Cardinals – While I don’t think that San Francisco can win this game, I do like the points. Arizona has been playing well, but the 49ers should be motivated after having a week off to think about Mike Singletary with his pants down. I’m sure they don’t want to see that again! I just have a feeling that the 49ers will keep this one close. Take the points, but keep your pants on!

Here are my top 10 teams after week #7 this year:

1. Tennessee Titans – They beat a good Green Bay team and now must take their show to Chicago. They will give Rex Grossman hell.
2. New York Giants – The Cowboys ended up being a speed bump in the Giants schedule. They face a much tougher test this week at Philadelphia.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – They lost Big Ben but rallied to dominate the Redskins. They’ll have to go without Willie Parker and possibly Big Ben this week against the Colts.
4. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are coming off their bye week, only to have another bye week. The Raiders are the laughing stock of the NFL . This will be ugly.
5. Baltimore Ravens – Defense wins championships, and the Ravens have one of the best. Now the offense is getting in gear with Joe Flacco. My surprise team this year is coming through to this point.
6. Washington Redskins – They lost to a very good Steelers team, and they get a week to re-group. They still have home divisional games to look forward to, along with a soft road schedule. They’ll be in the hunt at the end.
7. Tampa Bay – They had to rally to beat a bad Chiefs team. Will they be a good team that gets cold in the 2nd half of the season?
8. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles dismantled the Seahawks and now face their toughest test yet – the Defending Champs come to town.
9. New England Patriots – They lost a tight game at Indianapolis, but they return home and can re-take first place in the division.
10. Arizona Cardinals – They are in a very bad division, and they’re making the most of it. They should be able to take out the 49ers on Monday night.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Detroit Lions – They now turn to Daunte Culpepper. As long as there’s still a fight in this team, they’ll get that win. And it may happen this week.
2. Oakland Raiders – 77 yards of offense against the Falcons? And on your home field? Now they cut De’Angelo Hall, like he was the problem. This team is the worst in the league, but I can’t put them at #1 since they’ve actually managed to win a couple of games.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – They’re still giving their all and will likely give teams fits. But winning another game will be tough. They get one more shot at Oakland.
4. San Francisco 49ers – Rumors say that Mike Singletary managed to keep his pants on during the bye week. Let’s hope that trend continues!
5. Cincinnati Bengals – They finally got a win. But don’t think they’ve turned a corner. But they get to go 2 weeks without a loss thanks to their new bye week!

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #8:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Miami Dolphins
5. New England Patriots

LSU-Alabama

This is the week that Tiger fans have been waiting for since Nick Saban was named the head coach of the Crimson Tide. It’s also likely to be a weekend that they’ll rather forget. LSU’s QBs have not been playing well, and Saban will blitz from everywhere on defense and pressure those QBs into making mistakes. Alabama will pounce on LSU early, and it will get ugly, both on and off the field. The LSU faithful won’t be kind to Saban & Company, but Saban will leave with the victory.

Alabama 45
LSU 27

Podcast

Be sure to listen to our Podcast each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, please give us a good review!

We have just finished our 18th podcast of the year, and we’re getting more listeners every day. We’re also setting new records with traffic to the website each week.

We’d like to welcome all of the new visitors to our site, and we want you all to know that we’re taking your feedback seriously! There seems to be a high demand for both pick’em and survivor games on the Porcupine, so that’s something we’ll work on for next season.

Be sure to log in before you vote on the pick’em poll, as your username is recorded with your picks. We’re posting the top 5 each week, so if you’re logged in, you’ll see your username in the leader board if you are worthy!
And remember, if you want a reply to your emails, be sure to include a return address with your message if you use the “email us” option on the website.
Keep up the good work Porcupine Nation!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Thursday Night Game
11/05/08

Broncos +3 over Browns – Jay Cutler is the experienced QB in this game, and he has many weapons to use. Brady Quinn gets a favorable match-up in his first start, but he's not seasoned and it will show. The Browns have been far from impressive, but so have the Broncos. I like the desperate Broncos team more than the desperate Browns team. Take the points in this one.

We’re at the Midway Point
11/01/08

As we approach the midway point of the NFL season, most teams have already had their byes, and next week is the last week with byes. The NFC East is every bit as good as we thought it would be, while the rest of the divisions are somewhat surprising. It’s not shocking that there’s an undefeated team in the AFC South, but what is surprising is that it’s not the Colts that are that team. Tennessee has gone through their schedule flawlessly so far, while the rest of the division are all 4 games behind the Titans. The other divisions are still up for grabs, as no other first place team has more than a 2 game lead. I’m sure things will change in the 2nd half of the season, as we’ll see a hot team get cold and a cold team get hot. It happens every year. I’d have to say that the biggest surprise of the year so far is the fact that the Falcons are 4-3 and are playing very well with a rookie QB. The biggest disappointment so far would have to be the Seattle Seahawks, who are struggling at 2-5 in a very bad division.

But there’s lots of football left, and there are still many surprises yet to come!

Our Fantasy Sports Book League was very interesting last weekend. We had a new high score from our money leader, but Coop took it upon himself to beat him in the head-to-head matchup with yet another new high score to win $5250 to $4969. Six of the ten teams made a profit this week, and 3 put up goose eggs yet again (although one team missed the betting deadline to get a goose egg). As a league, we made a profit of $6509, which is only the 3rd week out of 8 that we’ve beaten the bookie. Overall, our league is still down $8154 after 8 weeks of fantasy betting. And this is after our best week!

I’m still hanging in there in all three of our Survivor Leagues. Coop & I are the lone survivors in league #1, there are three of us left in #2, and 15 of the 17 are still going in league #3. And to top it off, I was 5-0 on my survivor picks last weekend, so I guess I was pretty safe. But things do look a little bit tougher this week, as the games are more evenly matched. For the past 2 weeks, I’ve gone 9 out of 10 on survivor picks. It’s tough avoiding the upsets, but it’s great if you do, because lots of others tend to lose out when an upset does happen.

In the weekly picks, I’m now sitting at 52.3% on the year, so let’s see if I can bring that number up this week.

Week #9 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Jets +5.5 over Bills – Brett Favre had an ugly game against the Chiefs last week, but still managed to pull out a victory. I think that he will rebound with a strong game in Buffalo, and that the Jets defense will be able to slow down the Bills running game. Look for the Jets to win this game outright and to even things up at the top of that division. Take the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS and the POINTS POINTS POINTS!

Bears -13 over Lions – It’s hard to give up that many points, but Detroit has the 32nd ranked defense and the 29th ranked offense. And they’ve already lost to the Bears by 27 points earlier this season. But they’ve gotten rid of one of their best players since then, and the Bears are coming off a bye week and will be well rested. And the game is in Chicago. The Bears will have no mercy on the pitiful Lions club and should put them away early. It’s a lot of points, but give up the points to one of the worst teams in the league.

Jaguars -7.5 over Bengals – TJ Houshmandzadeh said that the Bungles will win 2 games this year. That doesn’t sound like a lofty goal, but when you’re 0-8 and playing horribly, that’s not such a bad goal to have. It won’t happen this week. The Jaguars are not playing all that well, but they are very capable of running the ball well. Expect Jacksonville to pound the ball all game with a ball-control offense, and for Cincinnati to self-destruct once again. Take the road favorite, as the Bengals will struggle to win a single game this season.

Ravens +1.5 over Browns – Baltimore has the 2nd ranked defense, which is #1 against the run, and #3 against the pass. That’s very bad news for the Browns. Cleveland has the 30th ranked offense in the league, and they’ll find the going very tough. The Browns are fortunate to be 3-4 at this point, and they can thank their +6 turnover ratio for that. But to go along with their potent defense, the Ravens offense has been improving and is capable of winning games for them now. Joe Flacco has shown that he can manage the game effectively, and that he’s also a running and receiving threat. That’s a lot for a defense to worry about. I like the Ravens to win this one easily, as they did the first time these teams met. Take the points.

Buccaneers -8.5 over Chiefs – Kansas City has to move on without their top 2 QBs and their All-Pro RB for the rest of the season. If that wasn’t enough, the Chiefs defense is 31st in the league. There’s just nothing good to say about this ballclub. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss to the Cowboys and need a win to stay in the NFC South division hunt. The Bucs will beat up on the Chiefs. So spot the points as Tampa Bay wins in a blowout.

Texans +4.5 over Vikings – Houston is on a 3 game winning streak and boast the #4 ranked offense in the league. Matt Schaub has a 92.6 QB rating, and Andre Johnson is leading the league with 56 catches and 772 yards. Minnesota’s weakness on defense is in the passing game, and Houston will exploit that weakness. Look for the Texans to win this game in a shootout, while Adrian Peterson racks up many yards. Take the road dog and the points.

Titans -5.5 over Packers – Tennessee is the lone undefeated team, and they are strong where the Packers are weak. The Titans will be able to run the ball effectively and put pressure on the Green Bay offense to make plays. Tennessee will be successful in running the ball, while forcing Green Bay into making mistakes. Tennessee goes to a perfect 8-0 this week at home, so spot the points as the Titans show that they are for real.

Cardinals -3 over Rams – St. Louis had a good 2 game run prior to losing to New England. The Rams are still a bad team, and Kurt Warner will have a field day throwing the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Arizona’s offense is very explosive and their defense has been getting better each week. With Steven Jackson hurting, the Rams don’t have many options on offense. Take the Cardinals and give up the points.

Dolphins +3 over Broncos – Miami has been having fun with that Wildcat offense, and the Denver defense will have problems defending it. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should both have good games, and Miami’s defense is good enough to slow down Denver’s offense, especially if Selvin Young and Tony Scheffler can’t go. Take the Dolphins as a road dog to win straight-up.

Falcons -2.5 over Raiders – Who’d have thought that the Raiders would be a home underdog to Atlanta this season? And it’s not that the Falcons are that good, it’s that the Raiders are that bad. Atlanta will be able to run the ball effectively and that will be the difference in this game. Rookie Matt Ryan can get comfortable behind that running game and manage the game well. Take the Falcons and spot the points to Al Davis.

Giants -9 over Cowboys – It’s scary to think that the Cowboys are actually 9 point underdogs. But without Tony Romo and probably Jason Witten, the Cowboys are no match for the defending Super Bowl Champion Football Giants. New York is playing great defense, and Eli Manning has been very effective. Unless the Giants give up easy TDs on turnovers or on special teams, this one will be a blowout. The G-Men have been waiting a long time for a game like what’s coming, so spot the points and watch as New York embarrasses Dallas.

Eagles -6.5 over Seahawks – The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win against the 49ers, but let’s face it, it was only the 49ers. That whole division is very weak, and reality will set in when Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook come to town. The Eagles defense will smother the Seattle QB, and the Eagles offense will move up & down the field all game long. This in the LOCK OF THE WEEK! Take the Eagles and spot the points. Philly wins by at least 17.

Colts -5.5 over Patriots – I went back& forth on this one. It’s tough spotting the points to New England, but I have this feeling that the Colts will finally explode on both offense and defense, as they are getting a few hurt players back into the lineup. And the Patriots are hurting and have not been defending the pass very well lately. The Colts should look like a contender once again this week, so spot the points and watch as Indianapolis comes to life against one of their biggest rivals.

Steelers +1.5 over Redskins – Washington has been playing very well this season, and they have limited turnovers. Clinton Portis is the league’s leading rusher, while Jason Campbell has not thrown a single pick. But the Steelers are coming off a very physical loss and will be looking to right the ship on national television. Pittsburgh brings the #1 defense to our Nation’s Capital, and they will leave with the #1 defense. Look for the Steelers to force the Redskins into making mistakes, and for Big Ben to protect the football and make plays. Take the Steelers straight-up in this one, as their defense will be the difference.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #7 this year:

1. Tennessee Titans – They dominated the Colts and have a firm grip on the division title. They have a 4 game lead with 9 games to go. The division title is theirs for the taking.
2. New York Giants – We found out that they are a great team after that physical game against Pittsburgh. They get an opportunity to smash a hurting Cowboys team this week, and they’ll likely cash in on it.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – They lost to the Giants but are still better than most teams in the league. Washington had better watch out on Monday night.
4. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers followed their big win against the Saints with a solid win against a good Cardinals club. They are taking control of the NFC South.
5. Washington Redskins – The Redskins took out a week Lions club and now face a very tough challenge at home against the Steelers. They had better be ready to hit, and hit hard for 60 minutes.
6. New England Patriots – Their showdown with the Colts has lost its luster, but if they can go into Indy and come out with a win, then they’ll show us that they are still contenders.
7. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys played defense and beat a good Tampa Bay squad. Things will get even tougher at New York this week.
8. Tampa Bay – They lost a tough one to Dallas, but they can rebound against a bad Chiefs team.
9. Buffalo Bills – Was that loss to the Dolphins a sign of things to come? Jett Favre may light them up this week.
10. Baltimore Ravens – Defense wins championships, and Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the league. And their young QB is coming along just fine. This can be a very dangerous team.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Cincinnati Bengals – TJ Houshmandzadeh says the Bungles will win 2 games. Great way to set your goals high Cincy!
2. Detroit Lions – Too bad they don’t play the Bengals. What am I saying? No one would watch it anyway….
3. Kansas City Chiefs – There’s no way that this team will win another game. They should start rooting for the Bengals and Lions to each win a game.
4. San Francisco 49ers – Please keep your pants on 9er fans! We already know how embarrassed you are!
5. St. Louis Rams – The Cardinals will be looking to pull away with the division starting this week. Can the Rams prevent that from happening?

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #8:

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Chicago Bears
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
5. NY Giants

Are You Surprised?

What has surprised you the most in the league to this point? Is it a team that’s doing well, or one that’s doing poorly? What team do you think will get hot, and which one will get cold?

How has your Sports Book League been going? Are you turning a profit? Tell us about it!

Be sure to listen to our Podcast each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, please give us a good review!
We have received a couple of emails from iTunes listeners. We’d like to welcome all of the new visitors to our site, and we want you all to know that we’re taking your feedback seriously! There seems to be a high demand for both pick’em and survivor games on the Porcupine, so that’s something we’ll work on for next season.

Things have been going great at the Porcupine, as we’re now setting new records for visitors to the site each day and listeners to our Podcast each week. And I’ve managed to stay above 50% with my picks so far this season. Be sure to log in before you vote on the pick’em poll, as your username is recorded with your picks. We’re posting the top 5 each week, so if you’re logged in, you’ll see your username in the leader board if you are worthy!
And remember, if you want a reply to your emails, be sure to include a return address with your message if you use the “email us” option on the website.

Keep up the good work Porcupine Nation!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

That ½ Point Got Me
10/23/08

I was doing ok last weekend going into the Sunday night game. I was 8-4 and ready for the Porcupine’s pick to make a profit for me. And then Seattle got a trash TD with under 2 minutes to go to pull within 10 points. But the problem here is that my bet relied on Tampa Bay winning by more than 10.5. So I lost my big parlay bet in the Fantasy Sports Book, and I lost my game for the week. And then I totally blew the Monday night game and finished 8-6. Another game that looked shaky was the Houston-Detroit game. How does Houston blow such a big lead, only to let the Lions cover the spread in the end? While I don’t believe that any NFL games are fixed, I certainly can see why some people do believe that.

I made a grand total of $1.65 for the week, as I only hit on my safety bet. Had I been playing one of the 5 teams that put up goose eggs, I’d have actually gotten a win. But I played one of the 4 teams capable of beating me, so I lost $125.40 to $1.65. Only 1 team actually made a profit this week. As a league, we lost $7402.98 of the $10,000 that we wagered. For the year, we are now down $14,662.84 from the $70,000 wagered. And now only 2 teams are turning a profit for the season. It’s amazing on just how hard it is to win money! I should move to Vegas and become a bookie.

How in the world did the Rams not only beat the Cowboys, but actually annihilate them? And the Packers beat the Colts with the same score of 34-14. Are the Colts’ days numbered? Are they just getting old? And how in the world did the Raiders beat the Jets? The Jets should have smashed Oakland in that one. And Houston allowing Detroit to come back and beat the spread is just uncalled for. The Texans had better learn to put teams away when they have such a big lead, or they’ll end up on the wrong end of those big infamous comebacks! The way New England destroyed Denver reminds you of the team before Brady got hurt. That’s a team that I can’t get a handle on just yet. Are they really still a contender, or was that just a fluke?

I did manage to survive in both of my survivor leagues. In fact, Coop & I both took the Bucs (the Porcupine’s Pick) to remain the lone 2 survivors battling it out in our 1st league. I survived with Tennessee along with the other 2 survivors in our 2nd league. And now we’re starting a 3rd survivor league this week. Hopefully I can do a clean sweep of all 3 this year. That would be lovely!!!$$$$!!!!!

I’m still floating just above 50% on the year, so here goes nothing as I try to stay there!

Week #8 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Ravens -7 over Raiders – That Baltimore defense will rattle JaMarcus Russell, and Joe Flacco is starting to learn the game at this level. Baltimore should be able to run the ball with Willis McGahee, and Derrick Mason will continue to be his old reliable self. The Raiders can’t keep attempting 55+ yard field goals and expect to compete each week. They have to get TDs, and it just won’t happen against this defense. Spot the points to the home team here.

Jets -13 over Chiefs – It’s hard to give up that many points in this league, but the Chiefs are downright terrible. Kansas City needs a QB and a RB to carry them, and they have neither. They just put their top 2 QBs on IR, and they’re benching RB Larry Johnson for a second straight game due to his off-field problems. And the defense is giving up over 200 yards rushing per game. Things are flat-out ugly in Kansas City right now. The Jets are coming off a bad loss to the lowly Raiders and will rebound at home this week. This may be another game in which Favre & Company put up 50+ points. Spot the points, as Kansas City is one of the worst teams in recent history at the moment.

Bills -1.5 over Dolphins – The Wildcat offense was neutralized by the Ravens last week, and it won’t succeed against this disciplined Bills defense this week. Buffalo has been a pleasant surprise this year, and they should be able to put away the Dolphins as the Bills continue to lead the AFC East. Take the road team and give up the points in this one.

Falcons +9 over Eagles – Both teams are coming off a bye week and will be ready to play. Philly should be able to win this game at home, but the Falcons have shown that they can compete, and their young QB has been improving each week. The Falcons are a young team and will go through some growing pains. The running of Michael Turner will keep this game close. Look for the Eagles to win this game, but by less than 10 points. So take the points.

Buccaneers +3 over Cowboys – Without Tony Romo, the Cowboys are in trouble. They were just waxed by a bad team, and now they face one of the best NFC teams in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jeff Garcia is playing well, and so is the Tampa defense. Dallas has not played well on defense this year, and Wade Phillips is now taking over that side. It really won’t matter, as Dallas just doesn’t have the talent that everyone thought they had. Not only will Tampa Bay cover, but they will win this game outright, so take them on the money line. Things will get worse for the Cowboys. It will be interesting to watch how they handle it. I predict that things will unravel quickly.

Cardinals +4 over Panthers – Carolina is coming off a very impressive win against the Saints, and will be challenged by the Cardinals. Arizona has been playing well lately, with Kurt Warner showing that he can move the ball effectively in that offense. Look for this game to come down to a field goal. Take the points.

Saints +3 over Chargers – This is a must-win game for both teams, as both need the win to get back to .500 and to get back into their division races. New Orleans was just embarrassed by Carolina, and San Diego was put in their place by Buffalo. The Saints lost Reggie Bush for a few weeks, but actually may be better off because of it for the time being. The Saints will be less predictable with Bush out, and Drew Brees will be looking to show up his old team. And being that Brees is the best QB in the league, there’s no reason he can’t do it against a weak Chargers pass defense. LaDainian Tomlinson has not been impressive lately, and he will have to play better in order for San Diego to win. The field in London was a mess last year, but is supposed to be in better condition right now. Overall, the Saints have a better offense, and they should be able to win a shoot-out with the Chargers. Don’t bet on this game, but take the points if you must pick it.

Patriots -7 over Rams – New England has been up and down without Tom Brady, but they should remain up this week against a weak Rams team. The Rams are coming off 2 straight wins after that dreadful 0-4 start, but they’ll stumble in New England. The Patriots have regained their confidence and will do all those little things right, which is something the Rams have not been able to do. Take the home team here, as the Rams hot streak will turn cold quickly.

Redskins -7.5 over Lions – I’m surprised that this spread is not in the double-digits. The Redskins are a solid team that doesn’t make mistakes often, and the Lions are the laughing stock of the league. Washington should jump out to an early lead on Detroit like everyone else does, and they should get their biggest win of the season right here. Clinton Portis will have a field day against this horrible defense, and Washington will smother Detroit. Spot the points in my LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Browns +7 over Jaguars – The Browns have been struggling on offense, but there defense has been respectable. If Jacksonville can’t run the ball effectively, then the Browns should get a win here. I think the Browns will match up well in this one and not only cover, but actually win this game straight-up. Take the points.

Seahawks +5 over 49ers – Talk about a game that no one will bother watching. San Francisco fired Mike Nolan and put Mike Singletary in charge. I bet that Mike Martz won’t be too happy. The Seahawks are making Mike Holmgren’s last year miserable for him. Maybe there are just too many Mikes involved here. Take Seattle and the points, but by no means will I use this game in my Fantasy Sports Book League!

Bengals +9.5 over Texans – The Bengals are due for a win, but they’ll struggle to get it if they ever do. Cincinnati is not very good against the run, but they are solid against the pass. They should be able to hold within 10 points against a Texans team that couldn’t put away the lowly Lions. So take the points, as the Bungles are bound to win sooner or later.

Giants +3 over Steelers – This should be a good defensive battle, but the Giants have a much better offense and that will be the difference in this game. The Giants can run and pass the ball effectively, while the Steelers are struggling in the running game. This will allow the Giants to attack Big Ben, who has taken many sacks this season and has gotten banged up in games. Look for New York to win this game outright and re-establish themselves as the team to beat in the NFC. Take the points.

Titans -4 over Colts – Tennessee is good where the Colts are bad, and that’s in the running game. The Titans will be able to run the ball against the Colts defense, and the Titans defense is among the league’s best. Peyton Manning will find the going tough and things could get ugly quick for Indianapolis. Tennessee is at home and will be looking to lock up the division title as they move to 7-0 for the year. The Colts are in trouble, and they are looking old. Tennessee is a more physical team, and that’s one of the keys to beating the old Colts squad. Spot the points, as the Colts are far removed from the great team we’ve been used to seeing.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #7 this year:

1. Tennessee Titans – They’re the only undefeated team left, so they now get the top spot. They can make a strong statement to winning their division by beating up on an old Colts team.
2. New York Giants – They whipped the 49ers as they should have and will now face a very tough Steelers team in Pittsburgh. Now we find out just how good they are.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – They dismantled the Bungles but face a tough test against the defending Champs. Are they the better team?
4. Tampa Bay – Garcia is back and playing well. They get a banged-up Cowboys team this week. Will they pull it off?
5. Buffalo Bills – They proved a point against the Chargers. Now they can pull away in their division race.
6. Arizona Cardinals – They come off a bye to face the red-hot Panthers. They’ll gain lots of respect with a win.
7. Washington Redskins – The Redskins rebounded against the Browns and now face a weak Lions team. They need to win big this week.
8. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers smashed the Saints in Carolina. Now they must play well again and show that they can be consistent. Kurt Warner will provide another test for their secondary.
9. New England Patriots – Just when you thought they’d fallen, they destroy a good Denver team. Lookout Buffalo, the Patriots are still fighting!
10. Atlanta Falcons – The Dirty Birds get a little respect. But they’ll have to earn it this week if they want to stay in my top 10!

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Cincinnati Bengals – They’re bound to get a win, right? It’s time to put Palmer on IR and let him heal for next year.
2. Detroit Lions – They can’t keep falling behind by so many points and expect to get a win. Things have been better in Detroit.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – They are down to their 3rd string QB, and have benched Larry Johnson. I don’t think they know what offense is anymore in Kansas City. What am I saying? They don’t know what defense is either!
4. Seattle Seahawks – They’ve only beaten the Rams. And that’s not saying much. They have to knock off the 49er this week, or it’ll be a looooong season.
5. San Francisco 49ers – They fired their head coach. Is Mike Singletary the answer? No, but it may be a step in the right direction.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #8:

1. New York Jets
2. Washington Redskins
3. New England Patriots
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Tennessee Titans

How Have You Fared?

How has your Sports Book League been going? Are you turning a profit? Tell us about it!

Be sure to listen to our Podcast each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, please give us a good review!

We have received a couple of emails from iTunes listeners. We’d like to welcome all of the new visitors to our site, and we want you all to know that we’re taking your feedback seriously! There seems to be a high demand for both pick’em and survivor games on the Porcupine, so that’s something we’ll work on for next season.

Things have been going great at the Porcupine, as we’re now setting new records for visitors to the site each day and listeners to our Podcast each week. And I’ve managed to stay above 50% with my picks so far this season. Be sure to log in before you vote on the pick’em poll, as your username is recorded with your picks. We’re posting the top 5 each week, so if you’re logged in, you’ll see your username in the leader board if you are worthy!

And remember, if you want a reply to your emails, be sure to include a return address with your message if you use the “email us” option on the website.
Keep up the good work Porcupine Nation!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Dogs Ruled the Day
10/16/08

It seems as though the underdogs ruled last weekend, with the Falcons, Rams, Cardinals, Jaguars, and Browns all winning outright, and the Dolphins & Lions covering the spreads. The money line was a great play if you put anything on those dogs that won! I did hit the money line on the Cardinals and Jaguars in the Fantasy Sports Book League. And I did manage to hit a 5-team parlay that paid out $520 on the $20 I laid on it. That was enough to get me a win ($790 - $520) this week to improve to 4-2 overall. Coop is still in 1st place at 5-1 after winning his game $95.45 - $0.00. His luck is bound to run out eventually! We had one guy turn his $1000 into $4800 on 2 teaser bets. So far, that’s the highest weekly payout for us this season. As a league, we lost $1201.25 on the week, which brings us to a total loss of $7257.95 on the year. Even though we had a big winner this week, we still could not beat the bookie overall. We had 2 teams put up goose eggs, and 2 others that couldn’t crack $100. It’s a lot harder than it seems!

Overall, I had another rough week, going 6-8. But I’m still just above 50% on the year. I’ve been struggling with the early games, but I seem to do well with the 3pm games. Maybe I should just stick to those games for my bets!
I refused to pick the Saints after their loss to the Vikings, but they responded against a weak Oakland Raiders team with a dominating performance. Drew Brees has been the most consistent football player in the entire league to this point. And he’s getting better. For that reason, the Saints will be a team to be reckoned with in the coming weeks. Especially if they get back all the injured players and the defense continues to improve.

I’m sure there are many upset Bears fans after time slowed down in Atlanta. Matt Ryan kept his poise and made the play he had to make. Overall, the Falcons are looking pretty solid. As for the Browns, it puzzles me how they were able to dominate the Giants and rattle Eli Manning. But it was a fitting end to a strange weekend.

I’m sure the Eagles are feeling much better after pulling away late in San Francisco. The Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins all lost to inferior teams which makes that division a lot tighter all of a sudden. So now the only team without a blemish is the Tennessee Titans. How long can they keep it that way? It should last at least another week. The Texans were finally able to get into the win column with that exciting game against the Dolphins. Now they get the Lions. Can they start a winning streak?
Our Survivor League is now down to just me & Coop now. And our 2nd Survivor League went from 15 teams to only 3 left after those big upsets. I’m still in that one, but Coop fell with the Giants. I’ll be happy to win yet another one!
Things are certainly getting more interesting as the season goes along, so let’s look at this week’s games!

Week #7 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Bills over Chargers – This was a tough game for me to pick. San Diego is up & down, and I’m still not sure about Buffalo. But I took the Bills since they are coming off a bye week and they’re at home. It still seems as though LT is no where near the player he once was. I’m going with the younger team. So take the Bills in this even match-up.

Giants -10.5 over 49ers – The Giants are coming off of a beating from Cleveland for their first loss of the season. Eli Manning had a bad game, but should rebound at the Meadowlands. Look for the Giants defense to smother JT O’Sullivan, and for the 49ers to turn the ball over a few times. San Francisco was thinking upset last week, but they couldn’t hold on and actually got hammered in the end. Take the defending Champs and spot the points, as New York will be looking to gain their swagger back.

Cowboys -7 over Rams – St. Louis is coming off their first win of the season after knocking off the Redskins. Dallas is coming off a loss in which they lost QB Tony Romo, punter Mat McBriar, and now DB Pac-man Jones. All signs point to taking the Rams and the points. But I believe that this will force the Dallas playmakers to finally step up to the plate and make plays, and I think that they will be able to do just that against this bad Rams team. Look for Dallas to regroup and put on an impressive performance at St. Louis. The Rams are still a very bad ball club, and it will be obvious again this week. Spot the points.

Titans -8 over Chiefs – Both teams are coming off a bye week, so neither has an advantage for that. But the Titans are solid on defense, and the Chiefs aren’t solid anywhere. I like Tennessee to win big in this one and to improve to 6-0 as the only undefeated team left. Kansas City will struggle all season long, and they may not even get on the scoreboard this week. Spot the points as Tennessee wins this one easily.

Steelers -9.5 over Bengals – I was tempted to pick the Bengals with the points, but without Carson Palmer I just don’t see the Bengals being able to keep up with Pittsburgh. Their own fans are selling their tickets to the game, so they won’t even get the home field advantage here. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week and will be rested and ready for this game. The Steelers should win easily. Once again, spot the points to a bad team.

Bears -3 over Vikings – The Bears return home after that agonizing defeat in Atlanta. The Vikings are coming off wins against the Saints and Lions, and they should not have won either game. They won’t get lucky this week. Chicago will be able to throw the ball effectively, and they should be able to hold Adrian Peterson in check. The Bears will win, and they should also cover the points in doing so.

Saints +3 over Panthers – Carolina was just embarrassed by Tampa Bay, and in the process Tampa showed that stopping the run is the key to beating the Panthers. New Orleans has been very impressive against the run these past 2 weeks, as they stopped both Adrian Peterson and Darren McFadden. Look for the Saints to once again key on the run, and for Drew Brees & company to light up the Carolina secondary. This game will probably turn into a shootout, but Brees is much less likely to make mistakes than Jake Delhomme is. Look for the Saints to pull away in the 2nd half and to win this one outright.

Ravens +2.5 over Dolphins – Miami has been surprising everyone with that “Wildcat” offense lately, but they now face the most disciplined defense in the league. Baltimore was embarrassed by the Colts, and they will look to rebound this week. Miami won’t fool the Ravens with trickery. This will be a low scoring game in which the Ravens come out on top. Take the points.

Texans -8.5 over Lions – I was picking the Lions until I heard that they traded away one of their two best players. When they sent Roy Williams to Dallas, they pretty much gave up on this season and looked ahead to the draft. They did get a 1st, 3rd, and 6th round pick for him, but that won’t help them until next year. The Texans can and will throw the ball all game and Matt Schaub should put up very good numbers this week. Houston may get their most impressive win as a franchise this weekend. Spot the points, as Detroit is a bad team that just got worse.

Packers +1.5 over Colts – The Colts offense seemed to come alive last week vs Baltimore, but their running game is still struggling. And the Colts aren’t very good against the run either. That’s why I like the Packers at home. Ryan Grant should finally be able to get it going, and Aaron Rogers and Greg Jennings have been playing well together. The Green Bay defense should slow down the Colts just enough go get the win. Take the points.

Jets -3 over Raiders – Oakland took an early lead on the Saints last week, and then decided not to play anymore. The Raiders were manhandled from that point on. While Brett Favre doesn’t throw the ball with the same precision that Drew Brees does, he’ll still make many plays and the Jets defense will be able to hold down the Raiders offense. The Raiders are going no where fast. Take the Jets and spot the points in my LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Browns +7 over Redskins – There’s nothing about this game that I actually like. The Browns played a very good game against the Giants on Monday night, and the Redskins laid an egg against the Rams. Can the Redskins regroup this week? Possibly. But I like the points here. Cleveland has shown that they can play good defense from time to time, and I’m banking on the Browns to get a couple of turnovers in this game. Take the points if you must play it, but I’ll avoid this game in the Fantasy Sports Book.

Buccaneers -10.5 over Seahawks – Seattle will be without Matt Hasselbeck again this week, and Tampa Bay should finally stick to Jeff Garcia as their starting QB. The Tampa Bay defense shut down Carolina and created turnovers, and they will do the same to Seattle. Seattle has to make that very long trip this week, and everything points to the Bucs winning this one in a big way. And I’m on board with that. Spot the points, as Seattle is not even the best team in their very weak division anymore.

Broncos +3 over Patriots – I thought that the Patriots would be able to overcome the loss of Tom Brady and still win a few games. But it’s just not happening. If the defense played their part, then maybe it could happen. The Broncos will be the latest team to exact revenge on the Patriots, and they’ll run up the score if given the chance. I think it’ll happen. Take the Broncos with the points, and take them on the money line. Things are going to get uglier for New England this season.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #6 this year:

1. Tennessee Titans – They’re the only undefeated team left, so they now get the top spot. The rest of their division got victories last week.
2. New York Giants – We’ll call that loss to the Browns a fluke. How they rebound will say a lot about this squad.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – They return from their bye week. Did they heal enough to make a run?
4. Tampa Bay – With Garcia back in charge, the Bucs slaughtered the Panthers in their divisional showdown.
5. Buffalo Bills – They can prove a point this week against the Chargers.
6. Arizona Cardinals – They get a little respect after beating the Cowboys. But can they win on the road more often?
7. Dallas Cowboys – Is this team falling apart? With Romo out, they’ll need someone to step up and make plays. What they don’t need is T.O. blaming everyone but himself for their losses. That trade for Roy Williams can pay off if someone can spread the ball around.
8. Washington Redskins – The Redskins had a letdown after their impressive road wins. Turnovers did them in. But they are still a very good squad.
9. Carolina Panthers – They have another NFC South showdown this week, against the Saints. They’ll need to pressure Drew Brees and run the ball effectively to win.
10. Indianapolis Colts – They’re back! But are they back to stay? They get tested at Lambaugh on Sunday.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Cincinnati Bengals – They’re officially the worst team in the league at 0-6. With no Carson Palmer, this team is in serious trouble.
2. Detroit Lions – Just when it seemed that they’d get a win, it gotten taken away from them. It was a good try, but just not enough. And now they’ve traded away one of the two only weapons they owned.
3. Oakland Raiders – The Saints dominated this team. Now they face the old gunslinger. It could get ugly.
4. St. Louis Rams – They finally got a win, but they won’t get those breaks each week. But they do get the Cowboys without Tony Romo. Can they pull it off?
5. Seattle Seahawks – They’ve only beaten the Rams. It looks like they’ve finally lost control of the NFC West. The backups just can’t get it done.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #7:

1. New York Jets
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. New York Giants
5. Pittsburgh Steelers

We’d like to hear from you!

Be sure to listen to our Podcast each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, please give us a good review!
We have received a couple of emails from iTunes listeners. We’d like to welcome all of the new visitors to our site, and we want you all to know that we’re taking your feedback seriously! There seems to be a high demand for both pick’em and survivor games on the Porcupine, so that’s something we’ll work on for next season.

Things have been going great at the Porcupine, as we’re now 5-1 on Locks of the Week for an 83% conversion rate. We are setting new records for visitors to the site and listeners to our Podcast each week. And I’ve managed to stay above 50% with my picks so far this season. Be sure to log in before you vote on the pick’em poll, as your username is recorded with your picks. We’re posting the top 5 each week, so if you’re logged in, you’ll see your username in the leader board if you are worthy!

And remember, if you want a reply to your emails, be sure to include a return address with your message if you use the “email us” option on the website.
Keep up the good work Porcupine Nation!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Back on the Way Up
10/10/08

Well I rebounded from a terrible week and went 7-5-2 this past weekend. 58% is much better than the 38% that I had last week! But overall it was a devastating weekend for me. I lost my Fantasy Sports Book match-up by a score of $1420 to $1150. Only 2 of the teams made more than I did, and I just so happened to play one of them. I put most of my money on the Bears money line (-200), but I really should have just put it on the Bears with the line, like the Porcupine predicted. That would have been enough to get me the win. But it’s still a learning process. I’m confident that if I continue to make a profit each week that I’ll be in the top 2 at the end of the season. 5 teams were able to turn a profit, while 1 team broke even. We had 2 teams put up goose eggs again. Some people just believe in going for it all every week, and it’s turning out to be a bad decision on their part. They’ll probably have to hit a big one to have a chance after falling so far behind already. Overall as a league, we have 4 teams who’ve turned a profit at this time. And our league as a whole is down $6056.70 for the year.

And to make things worse for me, the Saints gave us one of the most heartbreaking losses that I can remember. They outplayed the Vikings for the entire game, but they managed to give that game away. Anytime you hold AP to under 2 yards per carry, and you get 2 punt returns for TDs, you should have a blowout on your hands. But not the Saints. Nope, instead they let a kicker and a couple of lucky bounces do them in. And to pile it on even more, they lost their 2nd round pick for the season. The secondary can’t afford to lose one of the few playmakers it had. Things are going to be very tough for the Saints from this point on. Oh, the pain of being a Saints fan. I think that only Saints fans can understand the pain that the Texans fans are feeling after they fell apart in the last few minutes of their game on Sunday. Trust me Houston, we feel your pain!

But how about those Dolphins? I knew they’d surprise a couple of good teams this year, but he Patriots and Chargers? Wow! They are playing some inspired football. The Giants are still looking like defending Super Bowl Champions, as they easily dismantled the Seahawks. That whole NFC West division is a joke. But my favorite story of this season so far is the Washington Redskins. I’m loving this team right now. They only lost to the Giants, and they beat the Eagles and Cowboys on the road. Now that’s impressive. They are staring 7-1 in the face, as they have the weak part of their schedule in the next three weeks against the Rams, Browns, and Lions. And they already played all of their divisional road games. If they miss the playoffs, then I’d have to say it would be the most disappointing turnaround from this point on.

All 3 of us survived this past week in our Survivor League. I got extremely lucky with the Colts. Coop had the Cowboys, and my wife took the Giants. She was the only one who didn’t have to sweat it out! Some things just don’t make sense. But, in the end, we’re all still in it for another week. Fantasy wise, it was a good week, as I went 3-0 in my 3 leagues. So even though I lost in the Sports Book and the Saints let us down, I did still manage to make something good happen this past weekend!

The Rams will start fresh with Jim Haslett at the helm, but I don’t think the results will be any different, especially having to go to Washington to face the hottest team in the league. The Bungles may have a shot at getting their first win this week, but it’ll depend on which Favre shows up in that one. Detroit will get another loss at Minnesota, as AP won’t be held down for a 2nd straight game. And look for the Browns’ troubles to continue against the Champion Giants. Well with all that said, let’s get on to the actual games.

Week #6 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Raiders +7.5 over Saints – New Orleans has lost 3 games that they should have won, and in the process they’ve also lost lots of key players. I’m not sure how the Saints will rebound from their latest setback, so I’m taking the points here. My heart tells me to take the Saints, but my head tells me otherwise. I’m expecting Darren McFadden to have a great game, and for JaMarcus Russell to look good. My faith in the home team is taking a beating, so I’m going to take the points, but I’ll be happy to lose this pick.

Ravens +4.5 over Colts – Both teams are struggling somewhat, but I like the Ravens because they play great defense. Indianapolis looks old, and the young Raven’s QB should be able to make a few plays against the struggling Colts defense. Baltimore will put lots of pressure on Peyton Manning, and unless the Colts get all the lucky breaks again this week, I like the Ravens to win straight-up in this one. So take the points.

Bengals +6 over Jets – The Bengals are due for a win, and this is the time to get it. Carson Palmer & company should be able to get things going on offense, and the defense needs to be patient and wait for Favre to start forcing things. I don’t know if Cincinnati can actually win the game, but they should keep it close. I’m not crazy about this one, but take the points.

Panthers +1 over Buccaneers – Carolina is playing great defense, and they are balanced on offense. I’m going with the hot team here. Tampa Bay is good, but they couldn’t score against Denver, so I think they’ll have trouble with Carolina. The Panthers are hot, and they don’t have as many questions as the Bucs do, so take Carolina in this one.

Vikings -13.5 over Lions – I was tempted to pick the Lions in this one since they’re getting so many points. But I just couldn’t do it. Adrian Peterson was held in check by the Saints, but the Lions defense is dead last in the NFL. The Vikings will score, and the Lions will have trouble scoring. I just don’t have any faith in teams that can’t play good defense. Look for Peterson to crack 200 yards, and for the Lions to get hammered again.

Falcons +2.5 over Bears – Atlanta can run the ball. And they can play solid defense. And they’re at home. And getting points. That’s why I like the dirty birds this week. The Bears will be overconfident, and will get ambushed by the Falcons. Take the home dog here.

Dolphins +3 over Texans – Miami is drooling at going over .500, and this is the week that it happens. Houston is reeling from that breakdown last week, and I don’t think they’ll recover against a team that’s quickly on the rise and playing with so much confidence. I really like the Dolphins to win this one, so take the points and enjoy the show!

Redskins -13.5 over Rams – You think the Rams were bad under Linehan? Watch how bad they’ll be under Jim Haslett. Haslett “led” the defense to the 31st ranking. And they promoted him to head coach? It’s almost comical. But at least he was smart enough to insert Marc Bulger back at QB. Washington has been playing outstanding football since losing to the Giants on opening weekend, and they are returning home to a fired up crowd after winning their last 2 road games. The Redskins appear to have any easy road ahead of them, as long as they don’t take anything for granted. I’m betting that they don’t. It’s a lot of points, but it’s the Rams. Spot the points and take the hottest team in the league.

Jaguars +3.5 over Broncos – Denver will be without TE Tony Scheffler and RB Selvin Young on offense. The Broncos defense will have a hard time stopping Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. I like the points here, especially since Denver has been involved in close games lately, and the fact that they gave up 198 yards rushing to Larry Johnson a couple of weeks ago. Jacksonville should be able to win this game outright. So take the points.

Eagles-4.5 over 49ers – This is my LOCK OF THE WEEK. Philly has fallen behind in their division, and they get to take out their frustrations on the 49ers this week. San Francisco got wins against two bad teams, and they are in the middle of what looks like a 5 game losing streak. Philadelphia can get to the QB, and the 49ers can’t protect their QB very well. JT O’Sullivan will be on the ground often, and the Eagles will beat up the 49ers. Spot the points, as San Francisco will get blown out in this one.

Cardinals +5 over Cowboys – The Cowboys have been failing to put teams away, and the Cardinals are a team that can score quickly. I like the points, especially since this game is in Arizona. The Dallas defense has been somewhat of a disappointment this season. Kurt Warner will get over 300 yards passing, and the Cardinals should be able to put up 30+ points. I would not be surprised if they won the game. But I do expect the Cowboys to win a close one. Take the points.

Packers +2 over Seahawks – Green Bay needs a good win to get back on track, and Seattle is just what the doctor ordered. The Seahawks are still hurting on offense, and the Packers defense will have no problems shutting them down. Greg Jennings and Ryan Grant will get on track and Green Bay will win this game. Take the points.

Patriots +5.5 over Chargers – New England knows how to beat San Diego, and the Chargers have been sputtering. LT is not the MVP RB that we loved to watch. The Patriots defense and special teams will be the difference in this game. New England is good at doing the little things, and that will make a big difference in this game. Take the points.

Giants -8 over Browns – The Browns can’t handle good defensive teams, and the Giants are among the best. Eli looks like an all-pro this season, and he’s getting it done. The Browns struggled to beat the Bengals, and they’ll struggle mightily in this one. Brady Quinn will see the field soon, and that’s not necessarily a good thing for Cleveland. I’d spot 10 in this one, so spot the 8.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #1 this year:

1. New York Giants – The defending Champs are playing great football. Eli is king. Things are good in New York.
2. Tennessee Titans – The Titans snuck by the Ravens to remain undefeated, but fighting in the locker room could doom this squad.
3. Washington Redskins – The Redskins are for real. They won 2 very tough road games and are now poised to go 7-1 with 3 easy games on tap. And even better, they’re already finished with their road division schedule. This is a team to beat.
4. Dallas Cowboys – They fall a notch to the Skins after losing to them and struggling to beat the Bungles. They had better learn how to put teams away, or they’ll go one-and-done in the playoffs again.
5. Carolina Panthers – Their defense smothered Kansas City, and the offense has balance. They face a tough test at Tampa Bay this week.
6. Denver Broncos – Denver passed a tough test against Tampa Bay, and they face another tough test against Jacksonville. They’re defense can make or break them.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers can still play defense. And that’s the key to their season
8. Chicago Bears – The Bears just feasted on the Lions, and they’ll be looking to feast on the Falcons this week. But they’d better not underestimate the Dirty Birds.
9. Buffalo Bills – They got handled by the Cardinals. How they rebound will say a lot about this club.
10. Tampa Bay – Showdown with the Panthers this week is important. They don’t want to start 1-2 in their divisional games.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. St. Louis Rams – A new head coach and a bye week won’t change this club. That first pick is theirs for the taking.
2. Cincinnati Bengals – They gave it a good shot, but they still fell to the Cowboys. That offense has to wake up soon.
3. Detroit Lions – The Bears smashed them, and they’re about to take another beating this week. When can they get a win?
4. Houston Texans – They’re the last of the winless teams, and they suffered a heart-breaking loss to the Colts. Can they beat the Dolphins?
5. Cleveland Browns – They only beat the Bengals. Did they re-group during their bye week? We’ll find out as they face the Champs.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #6:

1. Washington Redskins
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. New York Giants
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Miami Dolphins

We’d like to hear from you!

Be sure to listen to our Podcast each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, please give us a good review!

Things have been going great at the Porcupine, as we’re now 4-1 on Locks of the Week for an 80% conversion rate. We are setting new records for visitors to the site and listeners to our Podcast each week. And I’ve been able to stay above 50% with my picks so far this season. Be sure to log in before you vote on the pick’em poll, as your username is recorded with your picks. We’re posting the top 5 each week, so if you’re logged in, you’ll see your username in the leader board if you are worthy!

And remember, if you want a reply to your emails on our website, be sure to include a return address with your message.
Keep up the good work Porcupine Nation!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

I Got Slammed!
10/04/08

The early games were absolutely deadly to me last weekend. I managed to pick only 1 game right out of the first 8. Thankfully for me, the one I had right was my Saints. I did recover somewhat by hitting on 4 of the last 5 games, but overall this was by far my worst weekend yet. And to make matters worse, my wife went 8-0 in the early games. So here I am sitting with only 1 pick right, and there she is dancing around and bragging about how well she’s doing. I guess the teams with the pretty colors were winning last weekend! Some things just ain’t fair.

I also lost out in one of my Survivor Leagues with the Broncos. What a fine time for the Chiefs to break their losing streak! But I did manage to survive in my other league, as I took the Jaguars (who won in OT with a FG). Sometimes you just have to be lucky I guess. And the funny thing about that league is there are only 3 people left – Coop, myself, & my wife. Yep, she’s showing us up in that one too. Some things are just a mystery. (See below for my Survivor picks for the week.)

And to pile it on, I also lost to Coop in the Fantasy Sports Book League. All I needed was for one of two things to happen – 1) a win by Baltimore on Monday night, or 2) the total for the game to stay under 42. And in the 3rd quarter, the Ravens were up 13-3 and everything was looking good. Then the Steelers poured it on, and the next thing I knew, the game was in OT tied at 20. So the under was shot at this point. Now I needed the Ravens to win. Nope, didn’t happen. Coop gets lucky and secures the win, as I suffered my first loss. But overall, I’m still one of only 3 people to turn a profit, as I’ve earned $4386.05, putting me up $386.05 for the year. And with my 3- 1 record, it’s good enough to put me in 2nd place overall. I think my strategy from this point on will be to make about $300-$400 profit each week. But that’s easier said than done!

Let’s get on to the actual games. The Redskins certainly impressed me by beating the Cowboys as an 11 point underdog. That was a profitable money line if you bet it! And how about old Jett Favre? He lit up the Cardinals with 6 TD passes. I bet he made many fantasy owners very happy. And Aaron Rogers getting hurt has to worry those Packer fans, especially after seeing what Favre did. Another profitable money line was Kansas City, but it’s doubtful that many people cashed in on that one. The Saints were a good play, as they easily handled the 49ers. And the Porcupine nailed his Lock of the Week, as San Diego took out Oakland late in the game.

How about those Rams & Raiders? Firing head coaches after week 4. Neither team will see much success this season. And the Browns finally got in the win column, knocking off those hapless Bengals. Ocho Cinco is now talking trash about kissing the star in Dallas after he scores. Yeah, like that’s gonna happen! Tennessee and Buffalo are both sitting pretty at 4-0, while the Giants are 3-0. And the 4 teams still waiting for a win are the Texans, Lions, Rams, & Bungles. I expect all 4 to still be winless next week.

The Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book League has certainly been the highlight of the season for me so far. It’s been a fun learning experience, and we’ve gotten lots of great feedback about it. Some people even said they prefer this game to fantasy football. I enjoy both, but the Fantasy Sports Book League is a whole new experience. If you’re not in a league, it’s not too late. You can simply create a league for yourself to play, or for up to 10 people total. Give it a try, and you’ll see just how much fun it is. You have more control in the Fantasy Sports Book than you do in fantasy football. An injury or 2 won’t destroy your entire season. And this will last through the Super Bowl, so there’s always something to look forward to!

Week #5 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Chiefs +9.5 over Panthers – Kansas City finally decided to give the ball to Larry Johnson, and it paid off. He ran for almost 200 yards, and it opened up the offense. The defense was able to shut down Denver and create turnovers, and all of a sudden, the Chiefs ended their losing streak. Carolina is a solid team, and will likely still win this game, but I like the points here.

Ravens +3 over Titans – Tennessee is playing great football now, but that Baltimore defense will get to Kerry Collins and force him into making mistakes. Baltimore is the hardest hitting team in the NFL, and that will slow down the Titans rushing attack. Joe Flacco will get better each week, and should do just fine in front of the home crowd. I like the home underdog here. Take the points, as the Ravens will continue to get better each week, and Tennessee is due for a loss.

Bears -3.5 over Lions – I absolutely love this game. The Lions swept the Bears last season, and Chicago will get their revenge. Detroit is horrible. They have no defense, and Chicago will move the ball against them fairly easily in this one. Rookie Matt Forte is primed to have a big game, and Kyle Orton has been doing a fine job at the QB position. The Bears defense is returning to form, and will effectively shut down the Lions offense. The Porcupine says there’s no way in hell that the Lions can cover this week, and I have to agree! Spot the points, as the Lions will get embarrassed once again.

Packers -7 over Falcons – Aaron Rogers is hurt, but he’ll go in this one, since he’s following the iron man in Green Bay. The Packers will be motivated after last week’s loss to the Bucs. Look for Greg Jennings and Ryan Grant to both have big games. While I do think that Atlanta is getting better, I don’t think that they can hang with the Packers in Green Bay. The Packers defense will shut down Michael Turner and dare Matt Ryan to beat them. That just won’t happen. Spot the points, as Green Bay should win by at least 2 TDs.

Colts -3 over Texans – This is another game that I like. Peyton Manning is coming off a bye week, and the Texans are finally playing in front of their home crowd. While Houston should be motivated, I just don’t think it will be enough. Look for Manning to return to form, and for the Colts defense to create turnovers. Indianapolis covers. Spot the points.

Chargers -6.5 over Dolphins – San Diego is returning to form after a slow start, and are simply much more talented than Miami. Miami will lose the momentum of beating New England after coming back from their bye week. And the Chargers will ride the momentum of their 2 game winning streak into Miami. LaDainian Tomlinson is starting to look like the LT that we’re used to seeing, and Philip Rivers has been playing well. I just don’t think that Miami will be able to keep up with San Diego in this one. No matter what offense they come up with. Spot the points, as the better team will win by more than a TD.

Giants -7 over Seahawks – The defending Super Bowl Champs are undefeated and on top of their division. Seattle is 1-2 and struggling. Plaxico Burress will not play, but the Giants defense will show up and smother the Seahawks. Look for New York to pound the ball with Brandon Jacobs, and for Eli Manning to find a few other WRs to throw to. Spot the points to the Champs at home.

Redskins +5.5 over Eagles – Washington has been playing very well since losing to the Giants on opening weekend, and they have no problems winning on the road, as evidenced by their win in Dallas last week. Brian Westbrook has been hurting, and even if he plays, won’t be at 100%. The Eagles need Westbrook. Look for Washington to hit the Eagles, and hit them hard. This should be a fun game to watch. Take the points, as this game is likely to come down to a field goal either way.

Buccaneers +3 over Broncos – Denver’s defense will be their Achilles heel this season, and it’ll doom them this week. Tampa Bay has a very good defense and will be able to slow down Denver’s offense. But the Denver defense won’t be able to handle the Tampa Bay offense. Look for Earnest Graham to pound the ball, and to open up the passing game for Brian Griese. I like the Bucs straight-up in this one, so this is a good money line play too. Take the points.

Cardinals over Bills – The Bills have been playing well, but they’ve had to come from behind to win. The Cardinals are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jets in which they surrendered 56 points. But Arizona also managed to put up 35 points of their own in that loss. They are back at home, and should be able to knock off the Bills. Look for Buffalo to suffer their first loss of the season. Take the home team.

Cowboys -17.5 over Bengals – This is a whole bunch of points. But after Ocho Cinco ran his mouth about scoring and kissing the star, I think that the motivated Cowboys will smash the Bengals. Cincinnati is desperate for a win, but Dallas is not the place that they’ll find one. Look for the Cowboys to take out their frustrations on the Bungles, and there’s nothing that Cincy can do about it. This will be a shellacking. Dallas wins by at least 30. Spot the points. And watch as the Bengals flat-out give up in this one.

Patriots -3 over 49ers – New England is coming off a bye week after they got hammered by Miami. The Patriots defense will get to JT O’Sackedagain all game long. San Francisco only has one true weapon in Frank Gore, but he won’t be able to carry this team to a victory. New England will show everyone that they’re not done just yet. Spot the points, as the Patriots had a week off to regroup and game-plan for this one.

Steelers +4 over Jaguars – Pittsburgh is hurting at RB, and will have to turn to Big Ben and the passing game. The Steelers have many weapons for Big Ben to use – Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Heath Miller to name a few. To beat the Jaguars, you have to stop their running game. Pittsburgh can do just that. Look for Big Ben to have a good day passing the ball, and for the Steelers defense to shut down Jacksonville. Take the points, and take the Steelers on the money line.

Saints -3 over Vikings – The Vikings can run the ball with Adrian Peterson, and will be successful in doing so against the Saints. The only problem is that Minnesota will have to abandon their rushing attack in order to keep up with New Orleans. Drew Brees has been the hottest and most consistent QB in the entire league to this point. The Saints offense can put up big numbers on any team in this league, and they will do just that against the Vikings. Look for this to create opportunities for the Saints defense to get a couple of turnovers, and for the Saints to pull away in this Monday night match-up. Spot the points, as the Saints should win by at least 10 points in front of a loud Super Dome crowd.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #1 this year:

1. New York Giants – The defending Champs are back on top. They should have no problem improving to 4-0 against the Seahawks.
2. Tennessee Titans – That was an impressive win against Minnesota. They have a tough schedule, and I expect them to fall this weekend to the Ravens. But they’ve earned the right to be in this spot.
3. Dallas Cowboys – They lost a tough game to the Redskins, but they are still one of the most talented teams in the league. Look for them to rebound with authority against the Bengals this week.
4. Washington Redskins – The Redskins are for real. Their only loss so far is to the undefeated Champs. There’s no team they can’t beat at this time.
5. Buffalo Bills – The Bills will benefit from a not-so-tough schedule, but I expect them to fall this weekend at Arizona. But they’ve earned the right to crack the top-5 for the moment.
6. San Diego Chargers – Don’t be fooled by the Chargers’ 2-2 record. They are a very good team, and that will show in the coming weeks. They will roll to a 3rd straight win this weekend.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tampa Bay just knocked off a very good Green Bay squad, and are now tied for first in the NFC South. The Bucs have a tough test this week at Denver, but they should come out on top in this one too.
8. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are playing well and should be able to get another victory this week against Kansas City. They will look to remain tied with Tampa Bay, and to stay ahead of the Saints and Falcons.
9. Denver Broncos – Losing to the Chiefs was an embarrassment for this squad. If that defense doesn’t get better, then that talented offense will be all for naught.
10. Chicago Bears – Da Bears took out the Eagles with a very impressive goal-line stand. Now they get a treat – the lowly Lions are now on the menu. They will feast this weekend.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. St. Louis Rams – Jim Haslett now takes over this pitiful team. He won’t make it any better. If it weren’t for Steven Jackson, this team wouldn’t have any chance to even score. It’ll be a long, long season. But at least they can’t lose this week!
2. Cincinnati Bengals – Apparently they’re not happy unless their players are on parole. Chris Henry returns, and they just signed Cedric Benson. Oh, and Chad Johnson is talking trash like they’re going to win. They couldn’t even beat the Browns. It’ll be ugly for the Bungles this week.
3. Detroit Lions – The Bears come to town, and there goes yet another loss by this defenseless team. No defense = No wins. Yet another bad team with not much of chance to win any games.
4. Houston Texans – The last of the winless teams. But at least they were able to go to OT last weekend. They’ll eventually get a win, but it’s not likely to happen this week.
5. Cleveland Browns – They only beat the Bengals. Not too much to be happy about yet. The bye week may do them some good.

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #5:

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Chicago Bears
3. San Diego Chargers
4. New York Giants
5. New England Patriots

We’d like to hear from you!

Be sure to listen to our Podcasts each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, we’d really appreciate a good review!

I’ve been getting lots of great emails, but if you want a reply, be sure to include your email address in your message. This is important! I get questions each week with no return address, so those go unanswered.

We’ve been enjoying everyone’s posts, so keep it up!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Mediocrity on a Tough Week
09/25/08

It was a tough week, but I managed to break even at 8-8 overall. I knew it would be difficult when Coop & I had 11 different picks. He didn’t fare so well though, as he went 6-10. And the Porcupine dropped his first game this week to fall to 2-1. But what do you do after a bad week? You rebound with a strong week of picking games! This week’s matchups don’t look as tough overall, so I anticipate a good rebound for Coop & I, and for the Porcupine.

I’m sure a few people lost out in their Survivor Leagues with the Patriots falling hard to the Dolphins. Do you think that New England is heading to the bottom without Brady? Or is it still too early to tell? And a few more had to sweat it out with the Giants and Bills. But both managed to secure victories in the end. At least it looks like picking a Survivor this week will be much easier. I’ll throw in a couple of Survivor picks for you below.

How about those Rams, Lions, Chiefs, Bengals, & Browns? Can any of them get a win? The Bengals will likely beat the Browns this week, but the others will have to wait at least another week to win. And don’t get too excited about Buffalo and Tennessee just yet. Both are undefeated, but there’s still lots of football left to play. However, things are looking good for Buffalo at this moment. They have the Rams this week, and the Patriots are hurting. Their schedule doesn’t appear to be very tough. I may have been wrong about the Bills this season. But I’ll wait until midseason to make that call. Tennessee has a much harder schedule and will find the going tough from this point on. I don’t expect the Titans to be able to win enough games to make the playoffs from this point on.

This week in my main Fantasy Sports Book League no team was able to make a profit. I did manage to get a victory by pulling in $287.00, while my opponent only won $95.45. So I’m now the lone undefeated team in the Fantasy Sports Book. We had 3 more teams this week that put up goose eggs. But we finally had 2 teams that made sure they’d win at least a $1 bet, and one of those teams actually won their match-up $1.91 to $0. So the strategy of the Sports Book will likely change for a few teams now. My 3-week total is now at $3820.64, giving me a profit of $820.64 for the season, which is good for 3rd in overall earnings. The other 7 teams have struggled to make a profit so far this season. It just goes to show you how hard it is to beat the bookie. In fact, our league’s $10,000 weekly wagers this past weekend returned $2717.68, showing a whopping loss of $7282.32!

This week I play against Coop in the Fantasy Sports Book League. I’m curious to see what strategy he uses against me. I think I’ll stick to what I’ve been doing, and that’s to try to double my money. I’ll make a few small money parlays that can pay out big, but for the most part I’ll play it safe with straight bets, and maybe a couple of “safe” teaser plays. I’ll be looking at these teams (especially in teaser plays) – Bengals, Vikings, Chargers, Bills, Broncos, Redskins, Eagles, and Ravens.

And in our Message Board League, I won $1770 in week #1, $1695 in week #2, and only $258.50 this past weekend for a grand total of $3724. I’m still the money leader, and there are only 2 of us who have turned a profit after 3 weeks, with the other being wsdeejay. I will do battle with SellySellz this week.

If you’re not in a league, it’s not too late. You can simply create a league for yourself to play, or for up to 10 people total. Give it a try, and you’ll see just how much fun it can be. I’ve had people tell me that they rather this game over fantasy football. You have more control in the Fantasy Sports Book than you do in fantasy football. An injury or 2 won’t destroy your entire season. And this will last through the Super Bowl, so there’s always something to look forward to!

Week #4 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Bengals -3.5 over Browns – At least one of these teams finally gets a win this week! I have to go with the home team here. The Bengals gave the defending Super Bowl champs all they could handle, and they do still have Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, and TJ Houshmanzedah. The Browns, on the other hand, may be turning to Brady Quinn. But even if he’s more effective than Derek Anderson, he still doesn’t play defense. I think the Bengals will win this game by at least a TD. Take the home team and spot the points. And that over/under looks interesting at 44. Remember the shootout last season? Take the over if you want an extra play.

Falcons +7 over Panthers – Atlanta has turned things around quickly. This worst-to-first thing in the NFC South is ridiculous. But while I don’t think that the Dirty Birds will the division, they will give everyone hell. Michael Turner is the real deal, and if they can run the ball, they can keep the pressure off of their young QB. Carolina just lost LB Dan Morgan, and Atlanta will be pounding the ball all game. I like the points here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons won outright. I thought the spread should have been at 3 points, so 7 is a gift. Take the Dirty Birds!

Jaguars -7.5 over Texans – I absolutely hate this game. I have not gotten a feel for either team here, and that spread is dead on. I’ll go with the home team since their running game came to life last week. Houston may be in trouble since Hurricane Ike threw them off course. I don’t think that the fans are rallying around this team like I expected, and they may not play at home for quite some time. It looks like things may fall apart for the Texans. But I’ll have to follow them for a couple of more games to before I make that call. Leave this one alone, but take the home team if you must play it.

Vikings +3 over Titans – Here’s one that I like. Tennessee is over-rated at the moment, having beaten the Bengals and Texans. Minnesota is coming off a good win against Carolina after losing to the Packers and Colts. I think the Vikings are only going to get better each week, and they will give the Titans their first loss of the season. Both teams can play good defense, so don’t expect a shoot-out in this one. I like the points, and I like the Vikings on the Money Line.

Packers +1 over Buccaneers – This is another game that I’m not crazy about. I’ll take the Packers since they seem to have more stability at the QB position. Both teams have good defenses and good running games. This game will come down to turnovers. I think that the Packers are better overall, so I’ll take Green Bay to win this game.

Cardinals +1.5 over Jets – New York got hammered by San Diego, and Jett Favre is looking like he’s lost in that offense. Arizona is still far away from home, and that’s the only negative I can find for them this week. Kurt Warner can also air it out with his very talented WR corps, and I like the Cardinals to come out on top. Warner is less likely to make mistakes and to take unnecessary chances, and that will be the difference in this game. Favre will start to question his decision to play this season. Take the points.

Saints -6 over 49ers – The Saints are without Colston, Shockey, and possibly without Patten, but Drew Brees will utilize whatever weapons he has and the Saints offense will score against the 49ers defense. Former Saint JT O’Sullivan will feel the pressure from the Saints defense and will make mistakes. Look for the Saints to win by at least 2 TD’s. Spot the points, as San Francisco is about to start a 5-game losing streak.

Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs – Kansas City is going no-where fast, and Denver will help them get there. The Broncos offense will have their way with the Chiefs defense, and the Denver defense will find the going a lot easier this week. Look for a coaching change to happen soon in Kansas City. Spot the points in this blowout as Denver improves to 4-0.

Chargers -7 over Raiders – Lane Kiffin gets one more shot, and this will likely be his last game coaching the Raiders. San Diego is a very good team. Don’t let their 1-2 record fool you. The Chargers will load up against the run, and dare JaMarcus Russell to beat them. Not a chance in hell. And Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson will shred the Oakland defense. Spot the points, as San Diego will put up many.

Bills -8 over Rams – It’s the Rams. Enough said. They may not even score. Give up the points and go with the Bills.

Redskins +11 over Cowboys – Washington will be hitting the Cowboys, and hitting them hard. This division is brutal, and the Cowboys will take their lumps from their rivals. I would not be surprised to see the Redskins win this game outright. Take the points, as the spread is exaggerated due to the Cowboys’ popularity.

Eagles -3 over Bears – Philly is one of the best teams in the league, but may be without Brian Westbrook. But Donovan McNabb is playing at a high level and will lead this team to a victory. This will give the Eagles offense a chance to grow, and will only make them more potent for the rest of the season. The Bears are improving, but they still have more questions than answers. Spot the points.

Ravens +7.5 over Steelers – Baltimore is my surprise AFC team of the year, and I think this week will show why. The Ravens defense is back to doing what they do best, and the offense is getting the job done. Pittsburgh is coming off a physical beating from Philadelphia, and they’re in for another physical game against Baltimore. Take the points, and watch as the Ravens turn the corner.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #3 this year:

1. Dallas Cowboys – They handled Green Bay fairly easily, and now move on to a divisional foe. They’re in for a tough game, but should still win it.
2. New York Giants – The defending champs found a way to win, as champs do. Eli looks good. Their bye week may be too early this season though.
3. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles would win any other division, but they’re in the toughest division in the NFL. They may not lose a game outside of the NFC East. Their defense smothered Pittsburgh.
4. Denver Broncos – The Broncos have a great offense, but their defense will be the weak link in the long run. They were fortunate to come away with a victory against the Saints. 4-0 is likely against the Chiefs this week.
5. Green Bay Packers – The Packers got beat by a superior Cowboys team, but they are still one of the most balanced teams in the league. They have a very tough test at Tampa Bay this week. It should be a great game.
6. San Diego Chargers – Don’t be fooled by the Chargers’ 1-2 record. They are a very good team, and that will show in the coming weeks. They will dismantle the Raiders this week.
7. Buffalo Bills – They are undefeated, but I don’t see them beating any of the teams ranked ahead of them here. But they still can’t be ignored.
8. Tennessee Titans – Another undefeated team that can’t be ignored. I don’t expect them to stay on this list for too long. Their schedule is tough.
9. Baltimore Ravens – If that defense keeps playing at a high level, then they’ll remain on this list. The young QB will grow. They have a good test against the Steelers this week.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Buccaneers have a solid defense, and an offense that’s still trying to find an identity. How many passes can they throw each week?

Bottom 5 teams:

1. St. Louis Rams – How much worse can it get? Bulger is now benched.
2. Cleveland Browns – They’ve scored 26 points in 3 games for a league worst 8.7 points per game. Browns fans are looking back at last season and wondering what happened. It looks like Brady Quinn may get his shot very soon.
3. Detroit Lions – They got whipped by San Francisco and Mike Martz. They are finally realizing that changes are necessary.
4. Kansas City – At least they were able to score 14 points last week. It won’t be nearly enough to keep up with the Broncos this week.
5. Cincinnati Bengals – They may get off of this list with a convincing win at home against Cleveland this week. Otherwise, they may never leave this list!

My Top Survivor Picks for Week #4:

1. Denver Broncos
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New Orleans Saints
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Cincinnati Bengals

We’d like to hear from you!

Be sure to listen to our Podcasts each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, we’d really appreciate a good review! Coop even has a video on www.YouTube.com each week with some of our picks. Check it out! Search for 2008 NFL Picks Week 4 on YouTube and you should be able to find him.

I’ve been getting lots of great email, but if you want a reply, be sure to include your email address in your message. This is important! I get questions each week with no return address, so those go unanswered.

We’ve been enjoying everyone’s posts, so keep it up!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Another Successful Week
09/17/08

It was a successful week, but there were a few teams that let me down, starting with the Saints. They were outplayed the entire game, and still had a 9 point lead in the 4th quarter. But they just couldn’t hold on. And that blown call against San Diego was a killer. Had the refs not screwed up that fumble, San Diego would have been able to run out the clock and cover the spread. And could someone please tell me what the Browns were thinking when they kicked that last field goal? They needed a TD, but settled for 3, and never saw the ball on offense again. You gotta go for it if you want to win in this league! But with that all said, I managed to squeak out an 8-6-1 record for the weekend.

It looks like the Rams are the worst team in the league, and will struggle to get a victory. The Bengals aren’t far behind, as they can’t get that “potent” offense going. And those Lions. Well, they did give me a scare for a second when they took the lead against the Packers, but that didn’t last long. Aaron Rogers certainly is making people forget about Brett Favre these days! And Kansas City is going in the wrong direction. One thing is certain – the bad teams are flat-out terrible this year. Can any of those 4 turn their season around? I seriously doubt it.

This week in my main Fantasy Sports Book League I was one of only four people to turn a profit. I turned my $1000 into $2160. It was enough for my 2nd win to improve to 2-0. And my 2-week cumulative total is $3533.64. That’s good enough to put me in 2nd place in the standings. We had two teams that lost their entire bankrolls. You’d think that they’d have learned something from last week, but it just goes to show you how hard it really is to beat the bookie! But overall, our league actually did beat the bookie as a whole. Our 10 teams took their $10,000 bankrolls and turned that into $13,297. Not too bad after all. But our big winner was the Fat Bastard (that’s his team name) who cashed in for $4440, as he hit every bet he made. Very impressive.

And in our Message Board League, I won $1770 in week #1, and $1695 this past weekend for a grand total of $3465. I’ve been making different bets in each league just to keep in interesting. And so far, I’ve been able to turn a profit across the board. Not many people have been able to make a profit, so I think everyone is learning just how hard it really is. If you’re not in a league, it’s not too late. You can simply create a league for yourself to play, or for up to 10 people total. Give it a try, and you’ll see just how much fun it can be. I’ve had people tell me that they rather this game over fantasy football. You have more control in the Fantasy Sports Book than you do in fantasy football. An injury or 2 won’t destroy your entire season. And this will last through the Super Bowl, so there’s always something to look forward to!

Week #2 lines are out, so here are my picks:

Falcons -5 over Chiefs – I’m not crazy about this game, but I just don’t see the Chiefs turning things around. Michael Turner will be able to run all over Kansas City, and the Falcons defense is capable of stopping a lame Chiefs offense. These two teams are headed in different directions. Give up the points if you must play it, but otherwise avoid this game.

Bills -9 over Raiders – Buffalo will concentrate on stopping the run and will force Oakland to throw the ball. Yeah right, like Oakland can actually complete a pass. That just ain’t gonna happen. The Bills will tee off on Jamarcus Russell once they build a lead, and will run away with this game. I still don’t think that Buffalo is going to have a winning season, but they are better than Oakland in every aspect of the game. Give up the points. There’s just too much drama in Oakland for them to be competitive this week.

Texans +5 over Titans – Houston is recovering from Hurricane Ike, and the Texans will give their fans something to cheer for. The Titans may still win this game, but Houston should hang in there. I like the points. Tennessee hasn’t done anything to impress me yet. Take the points and the motivated Houston team.

Giants -13 over Bengals – The Bengals stink. And the Giants still look like the defending Super Bowl Champs. 13 points is a lot to spot, but can anyone seriously pick the Bengals here? The Giants are getting off to a fast start this season, and games like this will only increase their momentum. Spot the points and watch as Eli shines again.

Redskins -3 over Cardinals – Washington dominated a good Saints team, and should have no problems with the Cardinals. Arizona has beaten 2 below-average teams, and will find the going tough against a talented Redskins defense. Give up the points, and go with the home team.

Dolphins +12.5 over Patriots – New England is still a very talented and dangerous team, but look for Miami to put up a fight and hang within the points. The Patriots won’t steamroll opponents in 2008 as they did in 2007. Take the points in this one, as Miami has just enough to stay within the spread.

Buccaneers +3 over Bears – Tampa Bay has a very good defense, and will shut down Chicago on offense. The Bucs offense should match up well against the Bears defense also. I like the road dog in this one. Take the points here. And take the money line.

Panthers +3.5 over Vikings – The Vikings are falling behind fast, and can’t afford another loss this week. The Panthers have come from behind 2 straight weeks and are not short on confidence. I think that this will be a 3-point game. So take the points. It will likely come down to the last drive again for Carolina.

Seahawks -9.5 over Rams – The Rams are so bad that I wouldn’t even take them with 17 points against a hurting Seahawks team. The game is in Seattle, so the fans will make things even more miserable for Marc Bulger & company. The Rams don’t know what defense means, and they’re offensive on offense. This is going to be one ugly game. Give up the points, but don’t even bother watching this game.

49ers -4 over Lions – For the 2nd straight week I’m picking San Francisco. The Lions are that bad. The 49ers should be able to throw the ball on the Lions lame defense. This is another game that you shouldn’t waste your time watching. It could make you vomit. But if you must, spot the points and take the home team.

Saints +5.5 over Broncos – Jay Cutler has weapons, and the Saints are hurting on defense. But Drew Brees will be able to pick apart the Broncos secondary also, so expect this to be another shootout. The Over/Under is at 51 in this game, and for a good reason. Neither team is known for their defensive play. The Saints hold the edge on special teams, and that could be the key to who wins the game. But I like the points, even if Denver gets the win.

Colts -5.5 over Jaguars – The Colts have gotten off to a slow start, but they came on strong late against the Vikings. Look for Indianapolis to carry that momentum over into this game, and for Jacksonville to continue to struggle. Again, spot the points and take the home team.

Steelers +3 over Eagles – This is one of the best games this weekend. Pittsburgh should match up well against Philly’s potent offense, and the Steelers should also have the edge against Philly’s defense. I like the points here. And the Steelers on the money line. While I think that Philly is one of the better teams in the league, I just don’t think they can rebound against Pittsburgh after a short week of preparation. Take the points.

Ravens -2 over Browns – I’ll repeat it one more time: The Browns will be a big disappointment this season. And the Ravens will be much improved. Defense wins championships, and Baltimore certainly has a great defense on their side. Sorry Cleveland fans, the ride was great last season, but it’s over now. Spot the points and go with the Ravens.

Packers +3 over Cowboys – Dallas is one of the best teams in the league, but so are the Packers. Aaron Rogers has been on fire, and the Cowboys defense was shredded by Philly, so expect Green Bay to be able to move the ball. And the game is in Green Bay, which is why I like the points. This is a scary game to pick, but at least it should be a fun one to watch.

Jets +9 over Chargers – Jett Favre should be able to move the ball against San Diego and keep this game close. The Chargers have lost 2 games late that they should have won, and that could hurt their confidence some. The status of LT will be important. Take the points.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #1 this year:

1. Dallas – They won a shoot-out against the Eagles, but must play better on defense to remain in this spot.
2. Pittsburgh – The Steelers are strong. But Big Ben’s shoulder could hamper their progress.
3. New York Giants – Now it’s on to the Bungles. They’ll have to wait a little longer to get tested.
4. Green Bay – Big game against Dallas this week. Now we can see just how good Aaron Rodgers really is.
5. Denver –Scoring is not a problem. They are a prolific passing team. Its how the defense plays that will determine their success.
6. Philadelphia – Tough loss at Dallas. If they can beat the Steelers, then they’ll remain in the top 10.
7. New England – They haven’t lost a regular season game since 2006. How long can they keep going?
8. Carolina – The Panthers haven taken charge of the division. But they have a big test at Minnesota this week.
9. Indianapolis – They responded well after their slow start. Now they need to kick it into another gear.
10. Buffalo – I didn’t give the Bills a chance in the off-season. I’m still not totally sold though.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Cincinnati – I thought this team knew how to play offense. What happened?
2. St. Louis – Can you say coaching change? It won’t be long. They will eventually overtake the Bengals on this list.
3. Lions – Well, at least they took the lead against Green Bay. Too bad they still lost by 23.
4. Kansas City – What happened to this squad? It’s going downhill quickly.
5. Miami – Two steps forward, one step back. It’s enough to keep them ahead of 4 other bad teams!

We’d like to hear from you!

Be sure to listen to our Podcasts each week, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, we’d really appreciate a good review!

I’ve been getting lots of great email, but if you want a reply, be sure to include your email address in your message.

We’ve been enjoying everyone’s posts, so keep it up!

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!

Not a Bad Start
09/09/08

It certainly wasn’t impressive, but I did manage to go 9-7 overall this week. However, I was 4 out of 5 on my favorite picks, with New England being the only loss there. And I’m confident that they would have covered had Tom Brady not gotten hurt. Coop laughed at me when I picked Chicago, but he’s since realized how genius-like that was! Carolina was a great money line play, so I hope some of you saw that coming. And what a great game that was. It looks like Jake Delhomme is back and ready to play. It was nice seeing the Saints get that win, and to see their defense finally step up and make some plays. I guess the biggest shocker of the weekend was Atlanta dismantling Detroit. If you’re a Lions fan, it’s going to be a very long season for you.

In our Fantasy Sports Book League, I was one of only three people to turn a profit this past weekend. I turned my $1000 into $1374. We had four teams that lost their entire bankroll. It just goes to show you how hard it really is to beat the bookie!

It looks like we’ll dodge a bullet this week as Hurricane Ike is projected to go to South Texas. I was not looking forward to another storm after Gustav left us without power and internet for almost a week. In fact, there are many people here in South Louisiana still without power. Hopefully everyone can get back to their normal routines soon.

Because of Hurricane Gustav, I just had my first fantasy football draft on Monday night. We’re probably the only league this year who didn’t draft Tom Brady! It was fun, as there’s nothing like getting together with your buddies and having a fantasy draft with a few beers. I certainly needed that after this past week.

Well, the lines are out, and here are my picks:

Chiefs -3.5 over Raiders – I like the home team here. This isn’t a good game to pick, but I just can’t take the Raiders again this week.

Bears +3 over Panthers – Carolina had the most exciting play of the weekend when Jake Delhomme threw that winning TD pass as time expired. The Bears are just a little bit better on defense and special teams, and that’s why I like the points..

Giants -8.5 over Rams – I think that Marc Bulger is having nightmares this week knowing he has to face the Giants fierce pass rush. The Rams are terrible. Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs will move the ball at will and the Rams are in for another embarrassment. It’s a lot of points, but spot the points and take the Giants.

Saints (even) over Redskins – The Saints offense can put up 400+ yards against any defense in the league, and their defense is much better than they were last year. The Redskins will start slow because their young QB is just not comfortable yet, and they just won’t be able to keep up with the Saints. Watch as Drew Brees and Reggie Bush put up great numbers. Take the Saints, as I’m surprised they are not favored in this one.

Colts -2 over Vikings – Indianapolis was embarrassed by Chicago last week, and they will rebound against Minnesota. Peyton Manning should be warmed up now, and the defense will improve after letting rookie Matt Forte run all over them. The Vikings are too one-dimensional on offense, and that will doom them early on. The Colts win by at least a touchdown. Spot the points and take Indianapolis.

Titans +1 over Bengals – Vince Young is a baby. He whines when the fans boo him, and he disappeared for a few hours after the game on Sunday. His family even called the police to report him missing. Thankfully, Kerry Collins is starting this week, and he actually makes the Titans a better team. Oh, and let’s not forget – the Bengals suck! Cincinnati has a porous defense and an inept offense. I think the best headline I saw after their game was “Stinko-Zilcho!” This team is in serious trouble. Take the road underdog, and expect the Bengals to hear their share of boos this week.

Jaguars -6 over Bills – Sure, Buffalo had an impressive victory this past weekend. But Seattle has no WRs, and the Bills scored on a punt return, and a fake field goal. Jacksonville will be motivated at home this week, and the Jaguars are simply the better team here. Take the home favorite and spot the points. The Jaguars have something to prove.

Packers -3 over Lions – Is the spread really only 3 points? Wow. The Lions are terrible. And the Packers haven’t missed a beat with Aaron Rodgers stepping in. He’s going to look good against that Detroit defense, and Ryan Grant may look like an All-Pro. There’s nothing positive to say about the Lions. I can’t believe the spread is this low. Take the Packers in my LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Buccaneers -8 over Falcons – The Falcons dismantled a very bad Lions club, but now they face division foe Tampa Bay. The Bucs are coming off a tough loss to the Saints and must win to keep up in the division. Atlanta is better than I gave them credit for, but they are still a rebuilding team. Spot the points here. The Bucs will make Matt Ryan look like a rookie this week.

49ers +7.5 over Seahawks – Seattle is in trouble. They are desperate for WRs and RBs. The 49ers aren’t very good, but they will certainly give the Seahawks all they can handle. In fact, I like San Francisco straight-up this week. You won’t hear me saying that very often this season! Take the points. Mike Holmgren will wish he had retired.

Ravens +4.5 over Texans – Baltimore is getting back to what they do best – and that’s play great defense with a ball-control offense. Houston has potential, but I don’t think they’ll fare well against good defenses this season. Take the road dog here. The Ravens are my AFC surprise team of the year.

Patriots +2.5 over Jets – I don’t remember the last time New England was an underdog. Sure, Tom Brady is out for the year, but this is still a great football team. Remember, the line is set up to balance the bets in Vegas. People will take the Jets because of Brett Favre’s arrival and Tom Brady’s departure. But New England thrives when they have a chip on their shoulders. And they’ll respond with a victory in New York. Take the points here, and take the Money Line on this one.

Chargers -2 over Broncos – If San Diego loses this one, they will quickly fall behind Denver in the division. They won’t let that happen. LT will have a big game and will spark the Chargers to a victory. Spot the points, and take San Diego on the road.

Dolphins +7 over Cardinals – Miami is an improved team this year, and will at least keep this game close. Arizona can never seem to get over that hump, and I think you’ll see that happen again this week. Take the points.

Steelers -6 over Browns – I said it in the preseason, and I’ll say it again – The Browns will be a big disappointment this season. They got whipped by Dallas, and they’re in for another whipping by Pittsburgh. Their defense is terrible, and their offense is sputtering. Pittsburgh plays great defense, and are now boasting a potent offense. Sorry Cleveland fans, the ride was great last season, but it’s over now. Give up the points and go with Pittsburgh.

Eagles +6.5 over Cowboys – Dallas is one of the best teams in the league, but so are the Eagles. Philly is rejuvenated and can compete with the Cowboys for the division title. I like the points in what promises to be a great game.

It looks like the balance of power may have shifted to the NFC this year. I have 3 teams from the NFC East in my top 4, and a total of 6 NFC teams in my top 10.

Here are my top 10 teams after week #1 this year:

1. Dallas – They handled the Browns just as the Porcupine predicted. But they have a huge challenge on Monday night against a hot Philadelphia team.
2. Pittsburgh – They dominated the Texans and should follow that with another strong showing against the Browns.
3. New York Giants – It’s their turn to romp the Rams. Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs are both poised for great games.
4. Philadelphia – Donovan McNabb is hot, and the defense much improved. They will give the Cowboys all they can handle on Monday night.
5. Green Bay – The Packers aren’t as bad off as I thought they’d be with Aaron Rodgers. They still have a good running game, and a good defense.
6. New Orleans –The Saints may boast the best offense in the league, and may have also built a respectable defense. Look out.
7. New England – Until I see otherwise, this is still a very talented and good team. Losing Brady does drop them down a few notches though.
8. Carolina – The Panthers showed that they can hang with the big boys. Jake Delhomme’s last second TD was a thing of beauty.
9. Indianapolis – The loss to the Bears will wake them up, and Peyton Manning will respond. There’s no reason to think they won’t win their division.
10. San Diego – The Chargers need to win to get back into the division race. Will they respond this week?

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Cincinnati – Just as I thought. This team stinks.
2. St. Louis – They can’t blame injuries for being so bad this time. They may eventually overtake the Bengals on this list.
3. Lions – Detroit got whooped by the Falcons. The Falcons! They are in serious trouble.
4. San Francisco – A win is possible this week. But they need to improve all around.
5. Oakland – The Raiders got hammered on Monday night. Can they turn it around?

We’d like to hear from you!

Be sure to listen to our podcast, and if you subscribe to us on iTunes, we’d really appreciate good review!

We’ve been enjoying everyone’s posts, so keep it up!

Did you turn a profit in your Sports Book League?

What are your best picks and parlays for the The Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book? How did you spread out your money this week? It’s a lot tougher than it seems!

Feel free to post your predictions or to just talk smack in the forum below.

Who are your top teams at this point? What about your worse teams?

Once again, welcome back to the Rabid Porcupine!

Goodbye Gustav, Hello Football!
09/06/08

Power was finally restored to us 3 days after it went out. But there are still lots of people who are without power. My internet service is out, and I don’t know for how long. The phone lines are in my yard at the moment. Everyone here suffered damage to their properties – shingles flew off roofs, siding ripped off the houses, and trees snapped in half. But no one was hurt, and we’ve all started to cleanup and repair the damage. Now we’re just hoping that Ike doesn’t pay us a visit. I didn’t get to watch the first NFL game of the season, but I’ll be watching the early games on Sunday. I also did not get to draft in any of my fantasy football leagues yet. We’re still trying to get everyone together so that we can do so.

I did talk to Coop by phone, and he posted my picks for me. I’ll list my favorite picks here.

Eagles -7.5 over Rams – Philly is my surprise team of the year. I expect the Eagles to be rock solid in all aspects – offense, defense, and special teams. And I’m not expecting much from the Rams, especially this early in the season. So look for Philadelphia to smash St. Louis this weekend. Take the Eagles here.

Patriots -16.5 over Chiefs – New England will open the 2008 season with a bang, just like they did last year. Kansas City won’t be able to put up much resistance, and will get slaughtered. It’s a lot of points to spot, but the Patriots should be able to put up 35+, and the Chiefs will be lucky to even score. Give up the points.

Saints -3.5 over Buccaneers – I was a bit worried about this one until Hurricane Gustav paid us a visit. New Orleans was spared this time around, and the people’s spirits are high. The team will be motivated by an enthusiastic crowd and it will be too much for Tampa Bay. Drew Brees is ready for an MVP type of season, and it will all start in week #1. Take the Saints here.

Ravens +1.5 over Bengals – The Ravens are not as bad as their record was last season. This team can still play defense, and that’s all you need to beat the Bungles. Cincinnati will sputter on offense, and their defense is full of holes. I’m picking the Ravens to be my AFC surprise team of the year. They will sneak up on a few good teams, and will rebound from last season’s disaster. Take the points, and take the money line.

Cowboys -4.5 over Browns – Dallas is loaded with talent, and will simply outgun and outman the Browns. Cleveland will come back to reality after having a great season in 2007. The Browns are the team that I think will regress the most this year. They won’t sneak up on anyone. They lack a good defense, and Jamal Lewis isn’t getting any younger. They may still put up good numbers on offense, but defensively they will get burned often. Take the Cowboys in this LOCK OF THE WEEK.

My top 10 teams in week #1 this year:

1. Dallas – They are the most balanced team in the league, and they are loaded with playmakers. Their division will give them many bumps and bruises along the way. But can they win a playoff game after their long drought?
2. New England – Coming off an undefeated season and losing the most important game of all left a sour taste in their mouths. The Patriots have a chip on their shoulder. Lookout.
3. Indianapolis – Peyton Manning should bounce back from knee surgery with no problems. The defense is solid. This team will be in it once again.
4. New York Giants – They are still the defending Super Bowl Champs. It’ll be tough to make another run this season. But they certainly are capable.
5. San Diego – The Chargers are poised to have another outstanding season. But injuries to key players have to be monitored here. They could fall off of this list really fast.
6. Jacksonville –The Jaguars will give the Colts a good push once again, and will likely be the best wild-card team in the league. They’ll go as far as their potent running game can take them.
7. Pittsburgh – Their running game will be a great one, and Big Ben is only getting better. The Steelers are known for great defense, but they may explode on offense in 2008.
8. Philadelphia – The Eagles are poised to break out and make another run at the Super Bowl. McNabb could use a couple of real receivers to throw to though.
9. Minnesota – The Vikings will run their way to the division championship. Their secondary and passing game both need significant improvement.
10. New Orleans – The Saints will boast one of the best offenses in the league, led by Drew Brees, an MVP-type quarterback. If the defense shows improvement from last season, this will be a very dangerous team.

Bottom 5 teams:

1. Cincinnati – They are in trouble. The defense is full of holes, and the offense may never get on track. Ocho-Cincho won’t be very affective with his bum shoulder. Bengals fans will be very disappointed this season.
2. Atlanta – They begin the rebuilding phase with Matt Ryan. This team should improve with time.
3. San Francisco – Alex Smith is sitting on the bench as JT O’Sullivan takes over. Are they kidding?
4. Miami – Another rebuilding team. They will surprise a couple of good teams along the way this year.
5. Chicago – It’s amazing how things change. Just 2 seasons ago they were in the big game. Without Devin Hester, this club wouldn’t have a single scoring threat.

We’d like to hear from you!

What are your best picks and parlays for the The Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book? How did you spread out your money this week? It’s a lot tougher than it seems!

Feel free to post your predictions or to just talk smack in the forum below.

Who are your top teams at this point? What about your worse teams?

Once again, welcome back to the Rabid Porcupine!

9/3/2008 Hubbell’s Picks

Hubbell’s home town was hit by Gustav so he is without power and internet service at this time so he phoned in his picks. His write-up will be a bit brief this week but he should be back by next week.

Bengals -1.5 @ Ravens
Hubbell loves the Ravens on this one.

Jets -3 @ Dolphins
Hubbell’s going with the Jets but is holding back on this one because of all the changes both teams have made.

Chiefs +16.5 @ Patriots
Hubbell loves the Patriots on this one.

Texans +6.5 @ Steelers
Hard pick but Hub’s going with the Steelers.

Jaguars -3 @ Titans
Hubbell likes the Jags.

Lions -3 @ Falcons
Hubbell’s is going with the Lions.

Seahawks pick’em Bills
Hubbell loves the Pacific Birds.

Rams +7.5 @ Eagles
Hubbell loves the Eagles.

Cowboys -4.5 @ Browns
Hubbell loves the Cowboys.

Panthers +9.5 @ Chargers
Too many points, Hubbell is going with the Panthers.

Cardinals -2.5 @ 49ers
Hubbell likes the Cardinals.

Bears +9.5 @ Colts
Hubbell likes the Bears. (I’m not kidding, that’s what the man said)

Vikings +2.5 @ Packers
Hubbell loves the Vikings on this one.

Buccaneers +3.5 @ Saints
Hubbell loves the Saints. (Not much of a shocker there.)

Redskins +3.5 @ Giants
Hubbell’s going with the Redskins.

Broncos -3 @ Raiders
Hubbell’s flipped a coin on this one and it came up Raiders.
Sorry for the lack of detail but I’m sure Hubbell will be back next week and you will get his full commentary once again.

Coop