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AFC North Preview
06/18/08

Time is really flying for us here at the Porcupine. We’re already on our 3rd Divisional Breakdown, which also means we’ve just finished our 3rd Podcast! The Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book is almost ready to launch, and this season we will provide it to you free of charge! So get your friends together, form a league, and see if you can beat the bookie and your friends! We are also working on the Pick’em and Survivor games. The Porcupine will give you all you can wish for while picking games.

We’re going to resume with the NFC North and our 4th Podcast around July 9th, after Coop & I each take a short vacation.

Also, we will soon be on iTunes with our Podcasts, so if you have an iPod or iPhone, you’ll be able to get our weekly Podcasts downloaded right to your MP3 player each week. Or, you can simply listen right here on www.RabidPorcupine.com by pressing play on the media player, or downloading the whole show straight to your computer. We will finish with the Divisional Breakdowns, followed by our picks for the entire season and playoffs. Then it will be time for the real action to start. During the season, we will make our weekly picks and talk about our Porcupine’s Fantasy Sports Book League in each Podcast. We will still offer the Porcupine’s Pick, and the poll so you can pick with everyone else. We hope you enjoy our Podcasts and we look forward to picking games with you all season long! If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to send us an email. Our email addresses are at the bottom of this page.

Now let’s get on with the AFC North predictions:

It looks like the AFC North has Pittsburgh, and then 3 other teams. The Steelers are the favorite to win the AFC North for the 2nd consecutive year. But it won’t be easy due to their difficult schedule. They have a tough stretch starting in week #8, with games against the NY Giants, Washington, Indianapolis, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, and Dallas. Look for the Steelers to drop no more than 3 of these games, and to sweep through their divisional games. This will put the Steelers on top of the division, likely with the only winning record in the AFC North. The Steelers are a well-balanced ball club that got better through the draft. They hold the NFL’s #1 ranked defense from 2007, and should maintain that level of play with a healthy unit. While the defense played well, the offense was average. But Big Ben showed that he can carry the team on his shoulders if necessary, as he compiled a 104.1 QB rating, which was 2nd to only Tom Brady. Big Ben threw for 3154 yards while completing 65.3% of his passes. He tossed 32 TD’s against 11 interceptions. But he was sacked a whopping 47 times. He’ll have to learn to get rid of the ball a little quicker to avoid getting hit so often. The line lost Alan Feneca, which may be a problem. The Steelers drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall in the 1st round, and then took WR Limas Sweed in the 2nd. The addition of Mendenhall is huge. He will pair with Fast Willie Parker to give Pittsburgh a solid rushing attack. And Sweed will join Hines Ward , Santonio Holmes, and Heath Miller to provide Big Ben with many options on offense. Add this improved offense to one of the better defenses in the NFL, and the Steelers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2008. That’s why I think they’ll easily win this division.

Second place in this division is a tougher pick, but I’ll go with the Ravens. Baltimore had a disappointing season in 2007 after a 4-2 start. But Baltimore is all about defense, and defense wins games. Expect the Ravens to play great defense and for the offense to improve each week under the leadership of Joe Flacco, who Baltimore drafted in the 1st round. They may start the season with Kyle Boller, but expect Flacco to get in early. The offense isn’t without weapons. While Baltimore may not hit the big play often, they can take the short yardage plays and create time-consuming drives. Willis McGahee had a respectable year with 1207 yards rushing, and Derrick Mason hauled in 103 catches for 1087 yards. Add a healthy Todd Heap back into that equation, and the Ravens offense all of sudden has life again. But losing Jonathon Ogden to retirement will be a blow to the offensive line. The defense finished 6th overall in 2007, allowing 302 yards per game. They had injuries in the secondary, which led to surrendering 27 TD passes. Look for a healthy Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Chris McAllister, and Samari Rolle to improve the pass defense once again. And with that improvement comes turnovers. Baltimore’s defense will carry this team to an 8-8 record, but it won’t be enough to earn a playoff spot.

Third place will go to the Cleveland Browns. The Browns surprised everyone last season with an explosive offense that carried them to a 10-6 record and a share of the division title (in which they lost the tie-breaker to Pittsburgh). But the Browns won’t surprise anyone in 2008. They did not improve their 30th ranked defense in the off-season, and that will bring them back to a losing record in 2008. Cleveland’s schedule is simply brutal, just like the rest of the division. But given their inept defense, the Browns will really feel the pain of going against the offenses of Dallas, Pittsburgh (twice), Cincinnati (twice), NY Giants, Jacksonville, Denver, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Philadelphia. And aside from the Bengals, these teams also have pretty good defenses. So expect Cleveland to return to reality in 2008. The passing game should still be fun to watch, with Derek Anderson tossing passes to Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, and Kellen Winslow. But how much gas does Jamal Lewis still have in his tank? It may not matter, as the Browns will likely have to throw often as they’ll be playing catch-up in most games anyway.

So it’s on to last place, which goes to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have one of the better QB’s in the entire league in Carson Palmer, and 2 of the better WR’s in Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh. Palmer threw for 4131 yards, 26 TD’s and 20 INT’s in 2007 for a QB rating of 86.7, good for 14th in the league. Chad & TJ combined for 205 catches for 2583 yards and 20 TD’s. All very good numbers. But the running game struggled to get going with Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson. However, the biggest problem with the Bengals is in the locker room, and off the field. They cut Chris Henry and Odell Thurman because of their constant failure to be law abiding citizens. Chad Johnson is demanding a trade. This brought the Bengals to draft WR’s in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds in the draft. And while doing so, they passed on WR’s Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, and DeSean Jackson, all of whom were rated above Jerome Simpson, who the Bengals drafted at #46 overall. This desperate move to shore up the WR corps led the Bengals to neglect the defense. While they did select USC LB Keith Rivers with the 9th selection, they did little else to improve their defense. It seems the Bengals weren’t afraid to draft Jason Shirley, a DT from Fresno State. Shirley was only suspended from the Fresno team TWICE in 2007 before finally being dismissed from school for off the field issues. Just what this club needed. The Bengals were last in the NFL in sacks, getting only 22 last season. This lack of pressure on opposing QB’s allowed them to get burned for 29 TD passes. Look for much of the same in 2008. A bad defense and an offense in limbo is a bad combination. Cincinnati will be competing for the first pick in the 2009 NFL draft.

Predicted order of finish:

1) Pittsburgh
2) Baltimore
3) Cleveland
4) Cincinnati

6/18/2008 AFC North Predications

The AFC North is in big trouble this year. In case you haven’t noticed this division has to play every team in the AFC South and the NFC East divisions. Are these two divisions tough? You bet they are. They are the only two divisions in the NFL that didn’t have a single team with a losing record in 2007. Every team was 8-8 or better. It’s going to be a long hard road for all the teams in the AFC North and this division is so competitive this year that it wouldn’t surprise me if the division champ had an 8-8 record. With that in mind here are my predictions for 2008.

Bengals

In this competitive division I am picking the Bengals to bring home the divisional title this year. Let me pause for the laughter to subside. Don’t be so quick to eliminate this team so quickly. There are several reasons why this team can win the division this year

This team is an offensive power house. They put up 348 yards and 23.8 points per game last year. Carson Palmer is returning after a stellar performance (64.9% completion, 4,131 yards and 26 TD with 20 interceptions). Rudi Johnson didn’t play that well last year but he is back in camp 13 pounds heavier (which is a great thing for him, he was too small last year) and with Kenny Watson helping carry the load this team looks very solid with their running game. Then there is the best WR duo in the game right now. Sorry Reggie and Marvin, TJ and Chad are better as a pair. TJ had a league high 112 receptions for 1143 yards and 12 TDs and Ocho-Cinco had 93 receptions for 1440 yards and 8 TDs. Offensively they are set.
The problem with this team last year was the defense. They gave up 24.1 points and 348.8 yards per game. To help resolve this issue Coach Lewis brought in Mike Zimmer to be the new defensive coordinator. Mike is a no nonsense guy who expects players to focus on the details and if you are wondering if he is any good just remember that he was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens back in 2000 when they won the Super Bowl with basically just their defense. In addition the Bengals acquired Antwan Odem(8 sacks in 2007) from Tennessee to help solidify the defensive line. And the Bengals drafted the All-American linebacker, Keith Rivers, out of USC in the first round. Do I expect this defense to be ranked in the top ten at the end of the year? No, but anything in the middle of the pack will be good enough for the Bengals offense to win some games.

Steelers

It was hard not choosing the Steelers to win the division this year. The Steelers are a very good, very solid and very balanced team.

Offensively, statistically, they are middle of the pack but that is hard to imagine with all the talent that they have. Their QB, big Ben, threw for 3154 yards, 32 TDs, only 11 ints and had a QB rating of 104.1 (2nd overall in 2007) for the year. Awsome stats. Let’s not forget about Willie Parker who rushed for 1316 yards with a 4.1 yards per game average. They also have a couple of talented wide recivers in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes. And to round things out the Steelers have a very good tight end in Heath Miller. Heath didn’t have a great year last year but he was playing with an injured hamstring in 2007. He’s all healed up now and should be back to old form.
With all that talent on offense it’s hard to believe that the defense is actually the more talented group of the two. The Steelers defense was ranked #1 last year in giving up yards per game at 266.4 and ranked 2nd in points per game with 16.8.

So why am I choosing the Bengals to beat out the Steelers for the division title this year. Because with all the great numbers they had last year they only went 10-6. They were very good at home with a 7-1 record but very poor on the road with a 3-5 record. As a matter of fact they are the only division champions that had a losing record on the road last year. It’s going to be a tight race but I think the Steelers will fall a bit short this year.

Browns

The Browns were the Cinderella story last year almost beating out the Steelers for the division title. Both teams were 10-6 last year but when it came down to the tie breaker the Steelers were crowned champs. The Browns will once again be good and this should be a very interesting three team competition for the AFC-North title but here is why I think the Browns will falter.

Derek Anderson is way over hyped. This guy played ok last year but lets not forget that his QB rating for the year was only 82.5 (17th overall). He only had a 56.5% completion ratio (the average is 60%) and he threw 19 interceptions. Not as bad as Rex Grossman but not exactly Peyton Manning either. He’s an average QB.
Braylon Edwards in very good but who is their #2 receiver. Joe Jurevicius has already asked the coaches to make him the third receiver due to the fact that his body can’t take the pounding anymore. So what did the Browns do? They brought in Donte’ Stallworth from the Patriots. I’m not going to say he sucks but let’s put it this way. In one of the most productive offenses of our time he only had 46 receptions and 697 yards as the number two wide receiver. The Patriots were not impressed and released him.
Defensively they were horrible last year giving up 360 yards and 23.9 points per game. They have added a couple of defensive linemen. Corey Williams from the Green Bay Packers and Shaun Rogers from the Lions. They have also hired Mel Tucker to be their new defensive coordinator.

The defense will improve but the offense will flounder and the Browns will fall to third place.

Ravens

I don’t like the Ravens. It’s not personal but with the amount of talent they have I don’t like picking them to finish last in their division. Here are my reasons why I have to put them at the bottom of the totem poll.

Bill is out, who I personally think is a great coach, and John Harbaugh is the new man in charge. John (yes his brother is Jim Harbaugh) comes from the Eagles where he was the special teams coach for 9 years until 2007. He was then moved to the defensive backs coach, basically as a strategic move, knowing that not many head coaching jobs go to special teams coaches. His gambled paid off and one year later he was named the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens. I don’t know if John is a good coach or not but shouldn’t your head coaches have at least been an offensive or defensive coordinator? How has a journeyman special teams coach proven that he is qualified to be a head coach? The fact is he hasn’t. The front office of the Ravens is betting blind on these cards and something tells me their going to lose their shirts.
Who is going to be their starting QB? Boller has proven that he can’t do it. Troy Smith is trying to prove that he can do it. Flaco (I don’t know why, but I love that name) is just waiting to prove that he will do it. Until “it” is done this QB carousel will be a mess.
Jonathan Ogden has retired. This man is a legend and one of the greatest to play his position. You can’t replace this kind of talent. The offense, which was pathetic last year, will be even worse because of his absence.

With the talent that this team has there is going to be a completely different story in 2009 but this year….well let’s just say that this year won’t be pretty.